Futures now see a 43% chance of a cut by the Fed’s March meeting, but that had been fully priced in at the end of 2023.
It never ceases to amaze me how many investors bury the head in the sand and do NOT want to hear what the data say.
All the recent data (US payrolls, initial jobless claims, inflation, retail sales) are strikingly hawkish and prove that the American economy is strong, so:
- Forget the rate cuts in March 2024. Those who still believe it are clueless, to say the least.
- Forget the rate cuts in the first half of 2024. Those who still believe it are clueless, to say the least.
- Another interest rate hike by 25 basis points is very likely in the first half of 2024.
- "Higher interest rates for longer" is a sure thing. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
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