$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 

 Between the 2, I won't chase either. 

Let's start with Nvidia. Stocks at all time high are tricky. 

Reason that they are so high, are built up by a series of bullish news, bullish narratives, bullish whatever themes u want to name it. 

The issue is that after reaching ATH, how to estimate the value? At such stages, the chance of overvaluation is very high, unless the company can grow even faster than the stock valuation. Even if company can grow fast for a while due to crazy growth, eventually something will fail. Either demand slow down, supply chain issues, production can't keep up etc. At that point, overvaluation will sink in.

It is way easier for investors to buy stocks and pump in money than a company can grow properly. There's also strong tendency to overchase the stock due to FOMO and greed. That's y very good stocks can suddebly collapse in stock value when their real life growth can't catch up with market expectations.

Hence, I dun like to "chase" after stocks that like to runaway and reach all time highs. A safer and more consistent way will be to enter before the crowd and exit before the crowd goes fanactic. To enter before the crowd needs knowledge and dedication to study the stock, which isn't easy. That's y many people like to follow what analysts say and follow blindly. The question is always, does the analyst buy before the article or after the article? How long does writing the article and getting to publication takes? 

Comparing Nvidia and Tesla, Nvidia is the better stock at the moment, and at least for the near term, however the stock valuation is getting dangerously high. True, high can go higher, but once selling pressure starts, better learn how to survive when a lift falls....

AI fever is still burning wildly and it's white hot. I dunno if and when will ai fever reach slow down and saturation or market suddenly realised how crazy the expectation of growth is, i would rather sit it out until there's a correction. 

Tesla did a great job in disrupting the automobile market and becoming a market leader. 

Tesla is still growing, but the growth is starting to have more and more issues with enhanced competition and adoption rate of EV have started to slow. Previous forecast on EV adoption was too optimistic, too high too Fast. 

With slowing growth, unless tesla can break out to new markets or have new breakthroughs, profit margins appear to be weakening especially with ongoing price wars. 

Let's not Even start on Elon musk and his own disruption to tesla share prices. 

The issue is that although tesla is technically still an automobile company, it's not treated as one. It's treated as a high growth tech company. Valuation treatment is very different. If high growth cannot be maintained, the valuation may take a hit. 

Hence, I will avoid tesla also. But then again tesla option premiums can be attractive at times.... [Sly]  

In summary, currently I won't choose either. But if I have to choose, even with the ev backdrop, I will prefer tesla to Nvidia. But I will only use options to enter to capture higher volatility premiums as well as cushion against swings. 

# Chase High of NVDA or Bottom Tesla?

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  • BenjiFuji
    ·01-25
    Aligned bro [Grin]
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    • Bonta
      [Sly]
      01-25
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  • Agreed! Long-term investments are the way to go.
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  • Dem0171c
    ·01-26
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  • Agreed [Smile]
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