To The Moon

This year's first meeting on interest rates has ended, and the wording is almost consistent with market expectations, while the unexpected non-farm data has greatly delayed the market's expectation of rate cut this year, which is basically consistent with the situation that I expected to start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year.

Generally speaking, these data are enough to affect the market trend in the next two months or so until the interest rate meeting in March, so everyone should not be too optimistic about the market in the next two months.

First, the trend of the US stock index

Non-farm exceeded expectations, which suppressed the expectation of rate cut, but it was also a signal of strong economy, so it was not bad for the trend of US stock index that day.

However, this non-farm report also shows the last concern that the Fed wants to see, that is, the spiral of "wage-inflation". If this situation is not controlled, inflation is likely to accelerate again. If inflation accelerates, it is a dilemma for the Fed to dare to cut interest rates. Therefore, after the data is released, the trend after February will reprice in the interest rate situation.

To put it simply, the market may even expect the Fed to continue a small rate hike, and then there will be periodic adjustments. Therefore, we should pay attention to the follow-up trend of US stock index, but not be too optimistic. If you break the 20-day line (4850), you should first resolutely avoid risks.

Second, the crude oil of the huge earthquake

When crude oil rises, inflation expectations will inevitably rise, so it is normal for oil prices to fluctuate in the market. The difference lies in whether they fluctuate slightly or greatly, while the trend in the last two weeks belongs to the situation of greatly fluctuating.

Oil prices saw a breakthrough in the last two weeks, but they were all suppressed last week. It can be seen that it is not easy for oil prices to rise in the short term.

Of course, it is not easy to fall. OPEC + still has a backup plan to cope with the weakness of oil prices, so the battle for $70 continues. According to the current fundamental situation, there is no solution to this state for the time being. Everyone still looks at the market from the perspective of weekly shocks. Just like the market in the first half of last year, it rose sharply every week and fell sharply every week, focusing on one without trend.

Technically, the 20-week moving average is a strong pressure position. Since it can't be broken through, we can only continue to look at it weakly. It is not necessary to short. We can use option strategy to win, such as selling short-term PUT options (PUT) and selling virtual value as much as possible. Although the income is low, the victory lies in the high safety factor, and rolling selling is suitable for the current market rhythm.

Finally, the Fed's wording and non-agricultural data are not good for the future market. Although the decline is limited, everyone should be prepared for the adjustment process. In recent years, the popular U.S. stocks have not been so smooth since the beginning of this year. It is necessary to observe whether the number of star stocks falling behind in the past (such as Tesla) is gradually increasing, and if so, be cautious.

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