To The Moon

Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024. It was slightly over 3 weeks ago that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally gave the green light for the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETF, after a very drawn out battle with funds houses. Prior to the much anticipated approval, so much written about the possibility of a rocketing Bitcoin price once the Spot Bitcoin ETF is approved. Well, well, well - things have a strange way of turning out. What happened? The launch of 11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs on 11 Jan 2024, was a highly anticipated event, and many expected it to boost Bitcoin's price. However, the price went the other way and has fallen by over -13.5% since the launch. (see above) There are several factors that might have contributed to this price decline: (1) Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) - sell off. Grayscale converted its Bitcoin Trust into an ETF upon the launch of the new spot ETFs. This led to selling pressure from some investors who wanted to switch to the new, more flexible ETFs. FTX, a bankrupt crypto exchange, also sold a significant amount of $1.0 Billion of GBTC holdings, adding to the selling pressure. (see above) (2) Profit-taking. Bitcoin had a significant price rally in the months leading up to the ETF launch, fueled by anticipation of the event. It's possible that some investors who bought in earlier simply took advantage of the launch to sell their holdings and lock in their profits. (see above) (3) Lack of institutional adoption. While the launch was a milestone for Bitcoin, the actual trading volume in the new ETFs has been lower than expected. This indicates that institutional investors have not rushed in as quickly as some anticipated. (4) Macroeconomic factors. US broader market has also been volatile recently, with concerns about (a) inflation and (b) confirmed elevated interest rates. (see above) This overall risk aversion might have impacted Bitcoin, along with other riskier assets. (5) Crypto market maturity. Some analysts have reasoned that the crypto market is maturing and becoming more susceptible to normal market forces, including corrections and profit-taking. The launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETFs might have simply triggered a natural market correction after the earlier rally. **Note: It's important to remember that the cryptocurrency market is still relatively young and highly volatile. Predicting price movements with certainty is difficult, and even major events like the launch of ETFs can have unexpected consequences. Performance - 11 Spot Bitcoin ETF s. It is interesting to note how uneven the 11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs performed since 11 Jan 2024 launch, listed in descending order of performance (%). The Top 5 Spot Bitcoin ETFs (in BOLD) suffered the most drastic decline for the past one month performance. Best to avoid for now? $Grayscale Bitcoin Trust(GBTC)$ - $38.34 | +2.93%. $Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund(FBTC)$ - $19.21 |-2.29%. $Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF(DEFI)$ - $51.03 | -4.54%. $ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF(ARKB)$ - $46.66 | -4.60%. $WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund(BTCW)$ - $45.67 | -7.40%. Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) - $42.95 | -7.69%. Franklin Bitcoin ETF (EZBC) - $24.95 | -7.76%. iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT) - $24.50 | -8.0%. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) - $48.68 | -8.01%. Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB)$ - $23.41 | -8.34% $Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund(BRRR)$ - $12.16 | -8.50%. My viewpoints: (mine & mine only) The Bitcoin price decline may not be directly linked to the launch of the ETFs. There may be other factors could be playing a more significant role. Long-term impact of the ETFs on Bitcoin's price is still unknown. Afterall, it has only been 2 weeks since the ETF launch. It is possible that they could eventually lead to (a) increased institutional adoption and (b) higher prices. Having said that, the fate of Spot Bitcoin ETF and Bitcoin are left to be seen, especially for Bitcoin with the looming “halving” exercise due to happen around April 2024. Historically, Bitcoin price surges have followed past halvings, with the ceveat that historical performance does not guarantee future results. Does it pay to wait for Halving to be completed before relooking OR does it pay to take a “risk” on a virtual currency that in essence holds no intrinsic value on its own? Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Give a like & help to repost ok. Thanks. Wall Street warrior - 7 Ackman Stocks rule the world. Will Tech Titan AMZN Crash Like GOOG & MSFT? $MSFT magic fades? Record earnings, falling price ? Do you think Bitcoin will continue to rise further before & after halving exercise ? Do you think financial institutions will eventuatlly take to Spot Bitcoin ETF? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents @Jazim @Jimmy_Lim @olala666 @Jolson @Warc168 @Nowrin