News and my thoughts from the last week (12 Feb 2024) - "I can be wrong", CRE, oil, debts

News and my thoughts from the last week (12 Feb 2024)

  • Stock price movements after earnings depend on performance, expectations, and outlook.

  • "I can be wrong" is a good paradigm. Same for investing, Same for life.

  • The US has a shortfall in refinery capacity 18.1M bpd and consumes about 20.07M bpd as of EIA 2022. Supply shortage is possible.

  • Oil market will face supply shortage by end of 2025, Occidental CEO says - CNBC

  • Over 430,000 customers were without power across the state, according to a USA TODAY power outage tracker. - USA Today

  • Businesses first go to China for their factory and they stay on for their customers.

  • WSJ: Why the FAA Still Can’t Fix Boeing? FAA does not need to fix Boeing. Boeing needs to demonstrate due diligence and compliance for FAA's review.

  • To afford the median-priced home of $433,100, Americans need an annual income of roughly $166,600. However, the median household earns just $74,580, per FORTUNE.

  • Powell has foretold that smaller regional banks should suffer and that federal spending is not sustainable.

  • It could be a K market with stocks surging up and plunging down. Let's monitor.

  • In 2023, 463 ETFs saw fee hikes as 87 ETF providers increased management fees, other expenses, or acquired fund fees. Only 64 ETF providers cut fees in 2023. - Factset

  • Journalism and MSM. We do not need to agree but let us consider the opinions from all sides. This is the beauty of free speech.

Analysts lowered EPS estimates for $SPX companies for Q1 in 8 of 11 sectors during the month of January, led by the Energy sector. - Factset

AAA estimates the annual cost of owning a new car in 2023 has reached $12,182, up 14% from last year. - Visual Capitalist

  • Credit card debt delinquency rates surged more than 50% in 2023 to their highest level since 2008, according to the NY Fed. Last quarter alone, total credit card debt in the US jumped $50 billion to a record $1.13 trillion. Auto loan delinquency rates also surged toward 8% for the first time since the Great Recession. All while interest rates on credit card debt hit a record 25% and new card loan rates hit a record 9%. How long can consumers hold on here? - The Kobeissi Letter

  • TREASURY Secretary Janet Yellen said that while losses in commercial real estate are a worry, US regulators are working to ensure that loan-loss reserves and liquidity levels in the financial system are adequate to cope. - Business Times

  • Protests have erupted in several countries, exposing anger about low prices for produce, rising costs, cheap imports and constraints imposed by the EU's drive to fight climate change. - Reuters

  • THE troubles in the US commercial property market, which have already hit banks in New York and Japan, moved to Europe this week, elevating fears about broader contagion. - Business Times

  • Dry season in Panama is in full swing, and the impacts to trade through the Panama Canal will remain challenged in the months to come. - Freight Waves

  • Hertz said last month it would take a $245 million charge from the sale of those cars due to high depreciation costs, in addition to higher costs for repairs for EVs, which dragged on the bottom line. - Yahoo Finance

  • Sometimes we assume because of arrogance, a pure heart but not because of a great mind.

  • Global investors expect falling prices in China to push down inflation rates worldwide this year, as excess capacity in its slowing economy prompts Chinese exporters to cut prices on goods they sell abroad - FT

  • The rise of office-to-apartment conversions has grown over 350% in just three years, according to data from RentCafe, largely due to lifestyle changes made during the pandemic. - Yahoo Finance

Is there more duress from the Commercial Real Estate (CRE)?


$S&P 500(.SPX)$


# Growth Stock Earnings: Prepared for Roller Coaster Ride?

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