Why it's Time to Consider Shorting Gold future?
In the past holidays, although most assets in the market I covered fluctuated to varying degrees, there was no sign of trend start from the final market results.
First of all, on precious metals, gold tried a double dip and held its low level. There are two possibilities for the pattern of A-B-C in adjusting structure, the lowest or near 1930. However, considering the one-week reversal of silver last week, platform consolidation is not impossible.
On the whole, in the rest of February, bargain hunting will be the main choice for gold. At the same time, it is also difficult for gold prices to quickly receive and pay the previous historical high of 2090. If tested here, it should be an opportunity to close long positions and possibly turn over.
In crude oil, the market trend is not rapid, but it continues to move towards the medium rail price. If the weekly high of 79.29 can be broken through this week, the pressure to further challenge the 84 line will inevitably follow.
It is worth noting that copper, a commodity that has been under pressure before, also stabilized and rebounded near the stepping position last week, suggesting that the overall short-term atmosphere of commodities is biased towards bulls. Therefore, like gold, if there is a suitable pullback in crude oil, it can be much lower; After hitting the target mid-track, flatten and observe whether you need to short.
The foreign exchange market was calm, and the US dollar was blocked in the short term after rebounding for many weeks, and returned to the trading range for nearly one year to fluctuate near the middle track. On the news front, the time node of interest rate cut has been greatly postponed from March to the middle of the year, which partially eased the pressure on the US dollar.
However, as we have always said before, in a relatively stable environment, all the US dollar can do is fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trend market. Last week, the weekly line of Euro/US dollar showed obvious downward shadow. We speculate that the US dollar will fall in the short term, but there may not be much room.
Finally, on the US stock index, the market seems to show some signs of weakness, and the core leading index NVIDIA weekly line has a big cross star, suggesting that there is a big difference between the long and short positions here.
It is not recommended to consider reversal in a hurry now, because volatility is still low, but we can consider locking in profits appropriately. In addition, it should be noted that if the US stock market shows signs of weakness in the future, the rise of commodities will also be compressed and affected. Only when the US stock market continues to bull, oil and copper will continue to improve.
Summary: After the holiday, there is no trend change or breakthrough in the market, but there are still periodic trading opportunities and directions. At present, it is still a small fight. If there are substantial changes, we will update them later.
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