To The Moon

Here are this week's investing and economic insights:

#MarketTrends

Fed’s Rate Cut: Boon or Bane for Investors?

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in 2024, following a series of hikes in 2022.

Institutions predict the first cut around mid-year, with total cuts around 100-125 basis points.

Past rate cuts have often led to recessions, but the Fed Chair is hopeful of avoiding this outcome.

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The Insight: How To Find The Opportunities

Anticipated rate cuts could make bonds more attractive as yields fall.

Stocks, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rates like real estate and utilities, may also benefit.

However, investors should monitor economic indicators for signs of a potential recession.

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#QuoteOfTheWeek

“I believe investors can gain an advantage by studying cycles, understanding their causes, and watching for excesses in one direction that are likely to lead to corrections in the opposite direction.”

- Howard Marks

Understanding market cycles and their causes can provide investors with a strategic advantage.

By identifying excesses in one direction, one can anticipate potential corrections in the opposite direction, thereby making informed investment decisions.

Always remember, the market is cyclical, not linear.

#What is happening?

S&P 500 Hits Record High, But Fed Spoils the Party

Last week witnessed a diverse array of market performances globally, mirroring the dynamic economic conditions worldwide.

In the United States, the S&P 500 sustained its upward momentum, achieving another all-time high amid favorable earnings reports and positive investor sentiment.

However, the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance tempered expectations of imminent rate cuts, prompting adjustments in market outlooks.

US Consumers in Trouble: Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquencies Soar

Concerns arise as US credit card and auto loan delinquencies reach a decade-high level, signaling a potential vulnerability in American consumer resilience.

Despite this, delinquency rates remain notably lower than those observed during significant periods of interest rate hikes. Investors will closely monitor this trend.

RBA Dashes Hopes of Rate Cut, ASX 200 Falls

In Australia, the ASX 200 experienced a modest decline following two weeks of gains, with energy stocks leading the downturn.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's unwavering position on interest rates, coupled with a commitment to restoring inflation to target levels, contributed to a heightened hawkish sentiment in the market.

China Fires Top Securities Regulator Amid Stock Market Woes

In response to a prolonged stock-market decline, China has ousted its top securities regulator, acknowledging the sensitive nature of the ongoing market slump.

Attempting to regulate stock prices out of a bear market raises doubts, emphasizing the potential value of fostering an investor-friendly business environment.

Speculation arises about China's potential adoption of the proposed RMB 2 Trillion ($278 Billion) rescue package to revitalize the market.

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Best Regards,

James Lim, SFA Founder

Disclaimer:

Stewardship Finance Academy does not provide financial advisory services. The content in this email/website serves solely for general educational purposes and is crafted without taking into account your specific objectives, financial status, or requirements. It is advisable not to depend on any guidance or information from this website. Prior to making any investment choices, it is suggested that you assess its suitability for your circumstances and consult with relevant financial, tax, and legal professionals.

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