Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading analysis with you!1. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ in disagreement with INDEX: (1) With all major indexes hovering around ATH, VIX refuses to budge--staying well above the previous low. (2) that said, the current setup of VIX also doesn't point to any major correction or selloff for indexes. (3) expect range-bound for a weekFollow me to learn more about analysis!!
Summary of Allianz's Global Insolvency Report (2024-2026)
This is the summary of Allianz’s Global Insolvency Report dated 15 Oct 2024. The source can be found in their website. Observations: 2024 looks to be an uptrend for insolvencies. Allianz Research is expecting the insolvencies to reduce over the following years. Summary: Global Insolvency Outlook 2024: Significant increase in insolvencies: Expected to rise by 11%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in two-thirds of countries. Key sectors affected: Construction, retail, and services have seen the most significant impact. Large insolvencies are on the rise: Particularly in Western Europe, especially in the manufacturing sector. 2025-2026: Continued high insolvency levels: Slowing growth, geopolitical tensions, and tighter financing conditions will contribute to this trend. Job losses: Over 1.6 mi
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1.All-Green Set-up with $.SPX(.SPX)$ closed over 6K for the first time. A small red doji on the daily chart, but with the strong bullish momentum, today's top will be tested a few times before any tangible corrective moves.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!!
News and my thoughts from last week (11Nov24) - grocery, debts and more
News and my thoughts from last week (11Nov24) Image Spending within our means is basic prudence. It's not just about what is accomplished but how it is managed. What we need is a realistic mix of news so that we can best navigate and take advantage of the different opportunities presented. Image The average American household spends $270 a week on Groceries - X user Visual Capitalist Supply chain has always benefited from global crisis. Coming to first principal, we must be ready to change on my when a different set of key information is presented. Thank you The All in Podcast and Chamath Container ships continue to line up outside Canada’s busiest import gateway as carriers wait for a lockout of union longshore employees to end. - FreightWaves The mortgage rate has risen by nearly 1% sinc
Economic Calendar for the week starting 11Nov24 - CPI, Retail sales and Fed Chair speaks
Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (11Nov24) Notable Highlights Consumer Price Index (CPI) should be the most watched macro news for the coming week. CPI is typically the indicator used to capture inflation. We are expecting CPI YoY to be 2.4%. This should bring some volatility to the market as this will form of Fed’s considerations coming to the next interest rate adjustment. PPI shows the inflationary pressures that affects producers. If this figure goes up, there is a good chance that the producers would pass on the inflation they faced onto the consumers. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures will be released in the coming week. This is a good indication on consu
Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (11Nov24) Notable Highlights Consumer Price Index (CPI) should be the most watched macro news for the coming week. CPI is typically the indicator used to capture inflation. We are expecting CPI YoY to be 2.4%. This should bring some volatility to the market as this will form of Fed’s considerations coming to the next interest rate adjustment. PPI shows the inflationary pressures that affects producers. If this figure goes up, there is a good chance that the producers would pass on the inflation they faced onto the consumers. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures will be released in the coming week. This is a good indication on consumer demand. Initial joble
Do we have a Commercial Real Estate crisis on hand?
Commercial Real Estate Crisis? The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 9.4% in October, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has now risen by 5 TIMES over the last 2 years. Delinquencies are officially rising at a pace only seen after the 2008 Financial Crisis. This puts the office CMBS delinquency rate on track to surpass an all-time high of 10.3% seen in July 2012. Meanwhile, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate rose to 6.0%, the most since the 2020 pandemic. The commercial real estate crisis is real. X user The Kobeissi Letter Can the wheels come off the CMBS soon? This should be owned by the current administration. Other News: Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 9.4%, Highest Since Worst Months after th
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical ideas with you!1.Technical analysis can always fit your imagination: $.SPX(.SPX)$ Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with u!1.2024, the Year of Bull: (1) for the last year, the Bull-Bear Spread has been consistently positive, except for one week in April 2024. (2) the largest gap is 32%--meaning there are 32% more bulls than bears. (3) now, the difference is 8.5%, a healthy spread for remaining days. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1."Trump is not good for China because of Tariffs"Let's look at this objectively on $JD and $BABA before we come to any conclusion outside of hard data. $JD.com(JD)$ & $Alibaba(BABA)$ charts below.2.I fully stick to this thesis. If you don't understand the timeframe or logic, just move on & look at the 100+ other charts/thesis' that I post about, extremely simple stuff. $Alibaba(BABA)$$JD.com(JD)$$HSI(HSI)$$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$
$Microsoft(MSFT)$This Electoral Vote win may become the biggest spread in history which would make the loser, and everything the loser stands for, the worst in history. That would be beyond bad for the party that supported advocated and defended the loser because of what will then be shown in The Presidential Museum And Library. Imagine being that person, that Party, and those voters. Wow, if that's not a humbling, head handed to you, legacy to carry....[Wow][Wow][Wow]
SPY, CAVA, PYPL, .SPX& MSTR Welcome Great Recovery Now?
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1. $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ They don't call it the golden fib for nothin' 🪄2. $.SPX(.SPX)$ Ladies & Gentleman, welcome to FOMC week. According to FedWatch, there is currently a 95% chance that the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points this week.The real question is, how will the market react? 🤔3. $PayPal(PYPL)$ Biggest comeback of 2024? 🏆4. $CAVA Group Inc.(CAVA)$ Don't get me wrong, I think CAVA is delicious, but trading 355 times earnings here seems a bit excessive. 🤔5. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
$.SPX(.SPX)$ thoughts: The index closed the week down 1.37%, with market breadth shifting negative as more stocks hit new lows than highs across Nasdaq and NYSE markets—even after the recovery Friday. Early October came with slowing momentum, an amber caution sign then.Market dynamics shift quickly, and while each environment has its unique narrative, my approach—focusing on short-term trend, breadth, and momentum makes for a clear-headed, emotion-free strategy. Each vertical line in the chart below is an instance where all three criteria signaled risk-off. Last Thursday all three signals triggered the alarm: we're officially in a risk-off mode, again. The fourth time in 2024.This approach has effectively flagged recent declines, though this year’
My Investing Muse (04Nov24) - oil as an indicator, layoffs & data revisions
My Investing Muse (04Nov24) Layoffs & Closure news Surprise, surprise… August jobs revised: 159K to 78K (-81k) Sept jobs revised: 254K to 223K (-31k) Chevron Corp. indicated potential US job cuts as part of a new cost-cutting plan. - LiveMint Manulife Financial has cut hundreds of jobs in its global wealth and asset management business, representing about 2.5 per cent of the division’s staff. - Business Times Publicis Groupe to lay off up to 200 employees at its digital agencies The holding company let go of more than 100 people at its media shops last week - Adage Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard Lays Off 87 Workers in Restructuring Effort - The Crimson Intel's biggest revenue decline in five quarters to hit amid broad layoffs and missed AI boom - Calcalistech Dropbox
News and my thoughts from last week (04Nov24) - Alex Karp sells Palantir shares, Mortgage rates rise?
News and my thoughts from last week (04Nov24) There are an increasing number of data points that would show that the US is in a recession. The reason we can’t see it is the distortion caused by government hiring and spending Countries thrive via its private economy. Not money printer spending by the government. Non-farm payrolls today + the revisions to August and September on top of data like this below should be concerning. - X user and Billionnaire Chamath Palihapitiya Singapore is on the radar for 74,000 ultra-rich UK foreign residents hit by the tax change. These wealthy foreign UK residents contributed £6.2 billion in direct tax revenue in 2023 Can this lead to imported inflation for Singaporeans? - Business Times According to a recent SEC filing, Karp sold shares over three days, to
Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (04Nov24) Notable Highlights The most watched event of the coming week will be the US presidential election. The results will likely affect American and global sentiment towards business and the conflicts in the various regions. With presidential candidate Trump promising to end the conflict quickly, this should bring some relief to the market though the defense industry should suffer. The next most important news will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is due on Thursday night US time. The general forecast is looking at a 25-basis point cut. The recent inflation data from PCE would leave the Fed with some consideration as inflation
Has the oil price provided a warning for the market?
Has the oil price provided a warning for the market? Oil markets are trading like we are in a recession: Oil prices are down another -7% today and now down -20% over the last 6 months. Despite record-high stock prices and a Fed calling for a "soft landing," oil markets are crashing. What are oil markets telling us? - X user the Kobeissi Letter While all of the focus has been on the Fed, oil markets have been flashing recessionary signals. Headlines like the one below are the new norm. The reality is that global oil demand has cratered, particularly in China. China is the largest consumer of oil in the world. - X user the Kobeissi Letter Oil can be seen as a forward indicator. While there are sustainable energy options, the demand for oil and its derivatives remains. Oil goes into many prod
Preview of the week starting 04Nov24 - is Rivian on track to be an EV powerhouse?
Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (04Nov24) Notable Highlights The most watched event of the coming week will be the US presidential election. The results will likely affect American and global sentiment towards business and the conflicts in the various regions. With presidential candidate Trump promising to end the conflict quickly, this should bring some relief to the market though the defense industry should suffer. The next most important news will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is due on Thursday night US time. The general forecast is looking at a 25-basis point cut. The recent inflation data from PCE would leave the Fed with some consideration as inflation remains s
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with u!1. $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ Thursday (31 October) Asian morning trading, spot gold high narrow oscillation, currently trading at 2787.36 !Gold prices on Wednesday again refreshed record highs to $2,789.89 per ounce, as uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election boosted safe-haven demand, and traders are also waiting for economic data to provide clues to the Federal Reserve's policy path.However, the U.S. economy grew solidly in the third quarter, with consumer spending growing at its fastest pace in a year and a half and inflation slowing sharply, continuing to break recessionary forecasts; this gave support to U.S. bond yields, making gold bulls wary.
Summary of Allianz's Global Insolvency Report (2024-2026)
This is the summary of Allianz’s Global Insolvency Report dated 15 Oct 2024. The source can be found in their website. Observations: 2024 looks to be an uptrend for insolvencies. Allianz Research is expecting the insolvencies to reduce over the following years. Summary: Global Insolvency Outlook 2024: Significant increase in insolvencies: Expected to rise by 11%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in two-thirds of countries. Key sectors affected: Construction, retail, and services have seen the most significant impact. Large insolvencies are on the rise: Particularly in Western Europe, especially in the manufacturing sector. 2025-2026: Continued high insolvency levels: Slowing growth, geopolitical tensions, and tighter financing conditions will contribute to this trend. Job losses: Over 1.6 mi
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading analysis with you!1. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ in disagreement with INDEX: (1) With all major indexes hovering around ATH, VIX refuses to budge--staying well above the previous low. (2) that said, the current setup of VIX also doesn't point to any major correction or selloff for indexes. (3) expect range-bound for a weekFollow me to learn more about analysis!!
Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (11Nov24) Notable Highlights Consumer Price Index (CPI) should be the most watched macro news for the coming week. CPI is typically the indicator used to capture inflation. We are expecting CPI YoY to be 2.4%. This should bring some volatility to the market as this will form of Fed’s considerations coming to the next interest rate adjustment. PPI shows the inflationary pressures that affects producers. If this figure goes up, there is a good chance that the producers would pass on the inflation they faced onto the consumers. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures will be released in the coming week. This is a good indication on consumer demand. Initial joble
News and my thoughts from last week (11Nov24) - grocery, debts and more
News and my thoughts from last week (11Nov24) Image Spending within our means is basic prudence. It's not just about what is accomplished but how it is managed. What we need is a realistic mix of news so that we can best navigate and take advantage of the different opportunities presented. Image The average American household spends $270 a week on Groceries - X user Visual Capitalist Supply chain has always benefited from global crisis. Coming to first principal, we must be ready to change on my when a different set of key information is presented. Thank you The All in Podcast and Chamath Container ships continue to line up outside Canada’s busiest import gateway as carriers wait for a lockout of union longshore employees to end. - FreightWaves The mortgage rate has risen by nearly 1% sinc
Do we have a Commercial Real Estate crisis on hand?
Commercial Real Estate Crisis? The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 9.4% in October, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has now risen by 5 TIMES over the last 2 years. Delinquencies are officially rising at a pace only seen after the 2008 Financial Crisis. This puts the office CMBS delinquency rate on track to surpass an all-time high of 10.3% seen in July 2012. Meanwhile, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate rose to 6.0%, the most since the 2020 pandemic. The commercial real estate crisis is real. X user The Kobeissi Letter Can the wheels come off the CMBS soon? This should be owned by the current administration. Other News: Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 9.4%, Highest Since Worst Months after th
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1.All-Green Set-up with $.SPX(.SPX)$ closed over 6K for the first time. A small red doji on the daily chart, but with the strong bullish momentum, today's top will be tested a few times before any tangible corrective moves.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!!
Economic Calendar for the week starting 11Nov24 - CPI, Retail sales and Fed Chair speaks
Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (11Nov24) Notable Highlights Consumer Price Index (CPI) should be the most watched macro news for the coming week. CPI is typically the indicator used to capture inflation. We are expecting CPI YoY to be 2.4%. This should bring some volatility to the market as this will form of Fed’s considerations coming to the next interest rate adjustment. PPI shows the inflationary pressures that affects producers. If this figure goes up, there is a good chance that the producers would pass on the inflation they faced onto the consumers. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures will be released in the coming week. This is a good indication on consu
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with u!1.2024, the Year of Bull: (1) for the last year, the Bull-Bear Spread has been consistently positive, except for one week in April 2024. (2) the largest gap is 32%--meaning there are 32% more bulls than bears. (3) now, the difference is 8.5%, a healthy spread for remaining days. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical ideas with you!1.Technical analysis can always fit your imagination: $.SPX(.SPX)$ Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1."Trump is not good for China because of Tariffs"Let's look at this objectively on $JD and $BABA before we come to any conclusion outside of hard data. $JD.com(JD)$ & $Alibaba(BABA)$ charts below.2.I fully stick to this thesis. If you don't understand the timeframe or logic, just move on & look at the 100+ other charts/thesis' that I post about, extremely simple stuff. $Alibaba(BABA)$$JD.com(JD)$$HSI(HSI)$$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$
Preview of the week starting 04Nov24 - is Rivian on track to be an EV powerhouse?
Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (04Nov24) Notable Highlights The most watched event of the coming week will be the US presidential election. The results will likely affect American and global sentiment towards business and the conflicts in the various regions. With presidential candidate Trump promising to end the conflict quickly, this should bring some relief to the market though the defense industry should suffer. The next most important news will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is due on Thursday night US time. The general forecast is looking at a 25-basis point cut. The recent inflation data from PCE would leave the Fed with some consideration as inflation remains s
Preview of the week starting 28Oct24 - have you consider SiriusXM?
Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (28Oct24) Notable Highlights The most important macro data of the coming week would be the core PCE price index. This is the preferred indicator used by the Federal Reserve coming to inflation. If the figure remains heightened, may be required to review their coming interest rate decisions. There are a few important job-related data that will be released, starting with JOLTS job openings which reported 8.04 million jobs in the previous report. The other important job-related data will include the ADP non-farm employment change, average hour earnings, nonfarm payrolls for October, and unemployment rates. These figures would be part of the consideration by the Fed
My Investing Muse (04Nov24) - oil as an indicator, layoffs & data revisions
My Investing Muse (04Nov24) Layoffs & Closure news Surprise, surprise… August jobs revised: 159K to 78K (-81k) Sept jobs revised: 254K to 223K (-31k) Chevron Corp. indicated potential US job cuts as part of a new cost-cutting plan. - LiveMint Manulife Financial has cut hundreds of jobs in its global wealth and asset management business, representing about 2.5 per cent of the division’s staff. - Business Times Publicis Groupe to lay off up to 200 employees at its digital agencies The holding company let go of more than 100 people at its media shops last week - Adage Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard Lays Off 87 Workers in Restructuring Effort - The Crimson Intel's biggest revenue decline in five quarters to hit amid broad layoffs and missed AI boom - Calcalistech Dropbox
Preview of the week starting 21Oct24 - do you need some SAP?
Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (21Oct24) Notable Highlights Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales figures will update us on the real estate market. S&P Global US manufacturing PMI was 47.3 previously. A figure of under 50 indicates a contraction. Are we able to see a rebound in the manufacturing sector? S&P Global US services PMI was 55.2 previously. This implies growth in the services sector. Will this sector continues its growth? Durable Goods Orders contracted by 0.9% previously. Investopedia defines Durable Goods as: new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting manufactured goods (durable goods) in the near term or future. Will this be good news for
News and my thoughts from last week (28Oct24) - Berkshire sells, Moody's French scorecard, no recession??
News and my thoughts from last week (28Oct24) Should we treat this as a concern for Bank of America and the bigger banking sector after Berkshire dumps $10 Billion worth of shares? - DaiyHODL Credit ratings agency Moody's revised France's outlook to "negative" from "stable" on Friday, over mounting uncertainty that the country will be able to curb widening budget deficits, but maintained its rating on French debt at Aa2. - Reuters In the first nine months of this year, 60 non-standard products tied to LGFVs have defaulted or warned of repayment risks, up 20% from the same period last year, according to data compiled by Financial China Information & Technology. - Business Times AWS CEO on AI & Energy: "If you think about these generative AI models... estimates suggest that in two to
Economica Calendar for the week of 28Oct24 - PCE, Job openings and PMI
Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (28Oct24) Notable Highlights The most important macro data of the coming week would be the core PCE price index. This is the preferred indicator used by the Federal Reserve coming to inflation. If the figure remains heightened, may be required to review their coming interest rate decisions. There are a few important job-related data that will be released, starting with JOLTS job openings which reported 8.04 million jobs in the previous report. The other important job-related data will include the ADP non-farm employment change, average hour earnings, nonfarm payrolls for October, and unemployment rates. These figures would
News and my thoughts from last week (04Nov24) - Alex Karp sells Palantir shares, Mortgage rates rise?
News and my thoughts from last week (04Nov24) There are an increasing number of data points that would show that the US is in a recession. The reason we can’t see it is the distortion caused by government hiring and spending Countries thrive via its private economy. Not money printer spending by the government. Non-farm payrolls today + the revisions to August and September on top of data like this below should be concerning. - X user and Billionnaire Chamath Palihapitiya Singapore is on the radar for 74,000 ultra-rich UK foreign residents hit by the tax change. These wealthy foreign UK residents contributed £6.2 billion in direct tax revenue in 2023 Can this lead to imported inflation for Singaporeans? - Business Times According to a recent SEC filing, Karp sold shares over three days, to
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!China’s GDP has grown 13 times since 2001Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, its GDP has increased 13-fold (Chart 2). However, the Shanghai Composite Index has grown by only 1-fold (Chart 3). In contrast, during this same period, U.S. GDP has grown 2.6-fold (Chart 1), while the Dow Jones has increased more than 4- fold. Will China’s stock market eventually catch up with its GDP growth? Chart 1 Source: TradingView Chart 2 Source: TradingView China’s GDP grew the most when the world entered the Covid lockdown While the rest of the world was in lockdown, with most of us working from home and shopping online, China’s manufacturers were supplying global demand. As shown in Chart 2, China’s GDP experienced it
My investing muse (21Oct24) - layoffs, cost of living, banking
My Investing Muse (21Oct24) Layoffs & Closure news Tech Layoffs: Amazon To Cut 14,000 Jobs In Managerial Positions - MSN EY slims workforce for first time in 14 years Slowdown in demand for consulting services leads Big Four accounting firm to post weakest revenue growth since 2010 - FT If laid off today, 40% of workers said they would run out of money within one month based on their current spending. 24% said they would run out within two weeks. - Market Watch Layoff & closure news continued into the week. Cost of living (taken from tweets of X user The Kobeissi Letter) The average cost of a family’s annual health insurance premium is up 7% over the last 12 months to a record $25,572. This is the second consecutive year with a 7%+ increase, pushing premiums higher by $3,109 in jus