GOLD Price Inflection Is Coming: Is It Time To Buy Or Sell?
With the announcement of the resignation of the Palestinian government, the tension in the Middle East seems to have eased relatively. Although it is still not optimistic that the conflict in Gaza will end here, such emergencies usually prolong the ceasefire, so the upward momentum for oil prices is weakened, making the trend still tangled. In fact, this result is not unexpected.
At present, WTI crude oil still fluctuates along the edge of the 20-week moving average.
If it can break through 79, the price will be the support for a period of time in the future. If it cannot break through, it is normal to bottom out 70 or even fall below 70 again. After all, the oil price environment is a broad volatile market in the first half of the year, and the fluctuation of $10 is only a swing rather than a trend, so now is the time when the oil price has a short-term direction, either up $10 or down $10.
Strategically speaking, buying bilateral call and put options is a good choice.
First of all, the volatility of crude oil options is relatively low, which means that options are "cheap". At the same time, due to the variety characteristics of crude oil, it is impossible to be in a state of low volatility for a long time, which means that one day the volatility of oil prices will increase sharply with emergencies. The strategy of buying bilateral options can capture the benefits of these two probability situations, and the risks are controllable (the maximum loss is option money), which is a good strategy to deal with current oil prices.
Perhaps waiting for the Fed's interest rate meeting in March, from the monthly chart, gold has been fluctuated at the position of 2050/60 for nearly three months.
Among the technical characteristics of gold, the monthly K-line has been consolidated for 3 months, and usually there will be a trend next month. If combined with the time point of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, it is likely that the trend will last for about 2 months.
At present, there is no trend towards gold price in the short term. Because the expectation of interest rate cut is too sufficient, it is difficult to be a fast market even if it goes up. On the contrary, if there is no interest rate cut or even the idea of rate hike again, the gold price will be quickly adjusted to make up for the gap of 1850, so everyone should pay attention.
At the same time, the trend of other precious metals is not strong. Although it is thought that there will be pulse opportunities for silver in recent years, it tends to appear in the first half of the year. It is not recommended that everyone buy at the bottom now. If silver falls to 17 USD/oz (the current price falls by about 20%), it will be difficult for most friends' accounts to bear it, so remember to make rapid progress.
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