To The Moon

Stocks rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closing at fresh record highs, as tech stocks rallied on continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence-related names including Nvidia, NetApp and Advanced Micro Devices.

⚠️ Trading tips: looking at NVDA calls at the lower channel for a bounce as well as strong support marked out in blue for some dip buy opportunity. AMD is also expected to scale new heights this week as semis look to be in the spotlight with crypto related counters.

Buying the dip again

Declining Treasury yields also provided a boost, as disappointing factory data and a decline in consumer sentiment solidified expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by this summer.

Market participants slightly increased their rate cut expectations following the economic data. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's May meeting is now at nearly 26%, compared to 18% the previous day.

Market participants were undeterred by the hotter PCE inflation data - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - which met expectations and showed little progress in the central bank's fight to push inflation down to its 2% goal.

The U.S. jobs report for February will be the headline economic event of the week. Economists forecast that employment likely increased by 190K during the month, and the unemployment forecast is anticipated to stand pat at 3.7%.

Notably, the month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings is expected to slow to +0.2% from +0.6% in January. The jobs report will arrive just 12 days before the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee on March 20.

69k here we go

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) went on a roll this week, surging toward its all-time high and racking up its biggest monthly gain since December 2020. The latest bull run, which saw bitcoin top $60K and its market cap jump to a staggering $1.2T, was fueled by several factors, including the spot bitcoin ETF boom that opened the door for mainstream investors.

The cryptocurrency market could be active again as buzz continues to build over the Bitcoin halving event expected to occur in April. The halving event reduces the reward for mining new bitcoin by half and occurs approximately every four years.

Bitcoin ETFs saw record inflows of $676.8 million in a day, driven by top funds like iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:IBIT) Morgan Stanley considers joining the trend, highlighting Bitcoin’s growing acceptance and investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market.

Economic news for the week

The earnings season slows down dramatically, although the tech sector has Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Broadcom (AVGO) (analysis) reporting, while consumer heavyweights Target (TGT) (preview) and Costco (COST) (preview) will also head into the earnings confessional.

The event calendar includes the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference. Participants include Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Netflix (NFLX). 

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