To The Moon

Nvidia and Apple need no introductions. Megacaps in their own niche with moats carved out in their own fields. They are that massive, many countries could not even hold a candle to them. They are that important and their products so critical to the world, if countries are publicly owned, they are there amongst the top!

So having said that, it is no wonder they have so much say in discussions and countries agendas, so much so that their CEOs visit countries at leaders' invitations! Nvidia CEO just visited Singapore not too long ago to discuss AI and investments. Talk about clout! So when these companies sneeze, the whole world might catch a cold you may say.

So where are we in terms of their market performance. Again I like to turn to technicals for perspective. Other data inputs tend to lag and not show a 'live' picture of the situation. 

And from what I see, Nvidia is in the last gasp of its third wave. The fifth wave of the final fifth of the third wave starting from the October 2023 low (It was at a paltry 110 dollars and no one wanted to buy it. I remembered a reader chiding me for being bullish then. Well look at Nvidia's price now! You can reference my articles in that time range to check out my analysis then.) seems complete. It might stretch a bit more knowing these five waves' behaviour being a tad erratic at times especially during exuberant periods (like now!).

I am still bullish Nvidia and AI in the long term. But these things have stages and soon people will start laughing at AI and calling it a bubble. And no one wants to buy AI names saying its a fad. I am waiting for that time to buy. The technicals are calling for a top despite the sentiments and hence I am waiting for better opportunities ahead. 

I believe Apple topped in December. It was one of the magnificient sevens to start falling by the side, the first being Tesla. As mentioned in an earlier article, only 3 of that group is still going strong now. If you look at the superimposed chart, we can see Apple peaking in December then making lower highs as Nvidia charts new highs. And the biggest trade in Apple's history occured a few days back on April 29th at $180. Now we cannot tell if it is a buy or sell but it was a 9.7 Billion dollar trade. However, only institutions are able to make such trades and only they can defend their decisions. Retail can never do that. As such, if price holds above 180, it is most probably a buy and vice versa. As we saw over the last few days, Apple is fast dropping below that level and with a technical picture that confirms it, the market has spoken and Apple is a big part of the market. 

That in itself is warning me to be cautious. The markets are on the edge with divergences everywhere. Sentiments are overly bullish and even the big firms' analysts cannot decide if valuations are frothy or ok!

Will Nvidia surpass Apples' market cap? I believe they will in the near future. But at the moment, it is a time to be defensive and protect capital at all costs! 

Disclaimer: Please kindly do your own due diligence as this is a sharing article and in no means financial advise. I am just sharing my opinions and thoughts.

Thanks for reading my commentary. Hope it helps!

Stay safe! 😊

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