NIO Earnings Digest | NIO is half dead!
Just now, $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO.SI)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ released its fourth-quarter report, which was a mixed bag.
Among them, the fourth-quarter revenue was 17.1 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 16.8 billion yuan.
However, in terms of profitability, the fourth-quarter gross margin was only 7.5%, far below analysts' expectations of 10.2%.
NIO expects its sales volume in the first quarter of this year to be between 31,000 and 33,000 vehicles, significantly below analysts' expectations of 44,000 vehicles.
After the release of the financial report, NIO's stock price rose briefly before falling back in pre-market, currently maintaining a slight increase.
From the pre-market trend, the market struggled with NIO's fourth-quarter report, hoping that the earnings conference call can save investors' confidence.
Although NIO's guidance for the first quarter is significantly below analysts' expectations, the stock price has not collapsed. This is partly due to the fact that NIO has already fallen by 41% this year, digesting the impact of bad news, and partly due to analysts' expectations being laggard.
Taking sales volume as an example, the sales volume for January and February has been announced, totaling 18,187 vehicles, a year-on-year decline of 12%. According to management guidance, the sales volume in March may reach 14,813 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 42.7%.
In absolute terms of growth and sales, March's performance was neither surprising nor alarming.
Of course, compared to its competitor $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $XPENG-W(09868)$ , management expects sales in March to reach 50,000 vehicles, close to the historical high of 50,353 vehicles.
Although it's not as good as $Li Auto(LI)$ $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ , NIO's situation hasn't worsened any further.
From the perspective of net profit, NIO lost 5.4 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, and lost 20.7 billion yuan for the whole year, with the amount of losses expanding, making it the undisputed "king of losses".
Currently, NIO has a cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term fixed deposits balance of 57.3 billion yuan, which can support its losses for another two years.
In addition, in December last year, NIO received a $2 billion equity investment from the Middle Eastern tycoon CYVN. Coupled with previous investments from local governments, NIO has no risk of cash flow disruption, but if sales volume doesn't break through, it will really be half-dead!
Under tremendous pressure, NIO has begun to reduce research and development expenses. In the fourth quarter, it invested 3.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. However, in order to increase sales volume, NIO's sales and management expenses increased by 12.6% to 3.97 billion yuan, with a growth rate significantly higher than revenue.
Considering the intensified competition in the new energy vehicle market in 2024, NIO really needs to make an effort.
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