To The Moon

If you look at the india stock market, it has been performing extremely well. In fact, what chinese stock market fails to do, India has outperformed significantly.

The next question then is will India catch up with China and in fact overtaking it? There is a possibility if you look at us companies with a number of Indian ceos and leaders. What's more is the USA and china competing position. Let's say an enemy's enemy may not be your friend but India is certainly and surely becoming the choice of manufacturing as a replacement for supply chain in Asia as compared to China.

But if I take a step back, I saw that Boeing has a huge engineering team in India and noticed that the number of incidents involving Boeing 737 max. While there is no direct correlation or official documents out from Boeing explaining that the lapse in safety and quality is a result of India manufacture but to outsiders like me, I am certainly rethinking if a pure construct out of India base is a safe decision especially for produvts like airplane. What's more is the royalty tax treatment and the withholding of funds by companies like Xiaomi and Oppo and maybe even old cases like that of Vodafone and Coca cola that make the transition of India unlikely a smooth path.

This means China still has time but China is certainly and rapidly losing its advantages due to its policies and actions over the last three years impacting on mncs', businesses and consumers' confidence. Without businesses feeling safe and residents not being willing and able to spend, the transition to India could be expedited.

There is a 50 percent chance that India can catch up and if China does not act fast, this possibility will increase in terms of probability.

In the meantime, India stock market still seems pretty resilient barring a crash in us stock markets. Chinese assets as always will be impacted by Us stock markets in the negative way.

China has to give a reason to investors to own Chinese assets. With competitors like USA and India, it certainly doesn't seem that China can continue to think that 100 years belong to west and 100 years belong to China if it continues to waste its advantages.

Europe is a major market too as compared to Latam and Apac. So all in all, china not being able to continue to hold its market in these two regions will not be good.

In summary, India stands a chance. It's evident that even funds are buying. Singtel recently sold a 0.7 percent stake in Airtel to GQG partners clearly show the appetite of foreign investors in India as compared to China now.

As much as I hate to admit the above as I own significant stake in Chinese assets, it's important to recognise that China is losing its edge. I just hope they can finally take a series of significant steps to win back the companies and funds. Otherwise, a slow gdp growth target will become embedded in its core.

As always,this should not be construed as any investment or trading advice.