To The Moon

With the release of various economic data in the United States and the speeches of the Federal Reserve Chairman and major officials, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June has been extremely extreme.

When we have been used to the good news, the small bad news will be particularly dazzling, which is exactly the case in the current market. March-May is another pricing of the Fed's interest rate cut path. The rate cut is not as fast as expected, and the market will also fall into shock, with different impacts on various commodities.

First, the price of varieties with sufficient interest rate cut expectations began to fluctuate

The varieties whose price fluctuation is closely related to the expectation of interest rate cut are the varieties that have fully priced the expectation of interest rate cut before, such as US stock index, gold, US bonds and BTC. Because these varieties are sensitive to interest rates, they rise before commodities, and when interest rate cuts are expected to fall, prices are not as fast as before.

Recently, the trend of US treasury bonds fluctuated and fell, indicating that the market began to gradually reduce the expectation of interest rate cuts. March is a high price of US treasury bonds in recent years, which is usually adjusted back to May-June or October (these two key points for speculators to speculate on Fed policies), so the recent performance of US treasury bonds prices will be relatively weak (that is, the yield of US bonds will rebound).

After gold hit a record high, the short-term trend has not been destroyed. It is worth noting that the gold highs in 22 and 23 years all appeared around March, so even if the gold price does not fall, the rising speed will slow down. Pay attention to the short-term rhythm. The currency is not much to say, and the violent version of gold tends to be similar, but it fluctuates greatly. However, the US stock index is expected to have short-term adjustment, and it is estimated that the big top or big drop will not appear until May, so you can watch and follow while walking.

Second, inflation expectations have resurfaced and commodities have started in turn

On the other hand, commodities have ushered in a long-lost collective agitation. Although the range is small, the actions are somewhat consistent. Crude oil, copper, palm oil and other inflation varieties rose simultaneously, indicating that funds began to speculate on the expectation of inflation coming again, and varieties with strong inflation attributes could show their talents again in the future market.

Crude oil is not much to say, but it is still bullish for a long time. At present, it should be tossed or tossed, and the speed will not be too fast. It is a long-term bottom-up process. At present, although the price is a little ink, it is better to have enough time to intervene.

When the oil price soars, you will find that the current price is relatively cheap. Although agricultural products are also inflationary commodities, not every agricultural product's price fluctuation is easy to trade. Relatively speaking, soybeans, soybean oil and other commodities are closer to inflation attributes, while wheat and corn will also follow, but the rebound market is the main one, and there is nothing better than expectation. American beans are the easiest varieties of agricultural products to go out of the market. This year, we mainly look at it and oil, and everyone can pay attention to it.

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