To The Moon

There is a recent trend of stock correction, and other stocks can do a sell call or buy put depending on the situation, but Nvidia and Flatbread still recommend to do a sell put, because I suspect that the probability of sideways is greater. Nvidia's growth is now the global consensus, and no one should be willing to throw away chips. Bitcoin I made a 185 sell put $COIN 20240419 185.0 PUT$ , of course, the safer point is 150, that is, when the financial report was disclosed, but it doesn't matter then add positions. The market correction amplitude to large speculation is back to early February. On February 29, some institutions bought 180,000 lots of $PUT options on a $100ETF(QQQ) with a December expiration strike price of $390 QQQ 20241220 390.0 PUT$ Looks scary, doesn't it? But this is also a trader who continues to roll positions, more like a risk hedge in style. A friend asked what is roll position, and explained that it is the meaning of closing a position and opening a new position. Unlike stocks, which can be held indefinitely, options futures have a continuous expiration date, hence the concept of a roll position. In addition, roll refers to the action of closing a position and opening a new position. For option roll, it means continuing to operate in the same stock, without the meaning of profit and loss. the first time the big guy bought put was on November 28, buying 280,000 lots of 360 PUT options expiring on September 20 $QQQ 20240920 359.78 PUT$ , about 360 million. At that time, before the December FOMC meeting, the market was quite optimistic about the 24-year rate cut speculation, but the stock market reacted deliberately to dampen the optimistic expectations, and the market continued to move sideways ahead of the meeting. Unfortunately, the end of November is only sideways, not to cut interest rates but to prove that the economy is strong. Time came to the end of the year, the end of December before the market a small pullback, the big guy in the pullback before the precise roll position, the 280,000 hands 360 into 280,000 hands $QQQ 20240920 379.78 PUT$ , the total right fee is still 360 million Although the big guy precision roll in front of the risk every time, but there is no profit to close the mentality, more like non-stop hedging, so it is meaningless to close the position, the elder brother opened the time point is more worth seeing, each roll hedge is very accurate. To go back to the beginning, what else happened on February 29th? I have written before: hundreds of millions of large collective roll positions, once again choose bullish. At the time, I thought the agency wanted to avoid the four-day volatility, but now it seems to have reached a consensus. So this year's risk prediction has become very simple, staring at the big guy's position can be $QQQ 20241220 390.0 PUT$ .