To The Moon

There is no suspense in the results of the Fed's interest rate meeting last week, and Powell's speech after the meeting is also dovish. At present, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year and reduce the QT rhythm at the same time.

Regardless of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as expected by the market, at least the current doves expect already has sufficient pricing, so the sensitivity of the follow-up market to the news of interest rate cuts will be relatively reduced. The integrity of the capital market will be weaker than before.

When the expectation of interest rate cut becomes closer and closer, the market's reaction to the news will become more dull, and even fluctuate in reverse (all the good news is bad), so the financial market will enter the stage of differentiation, with individual events and varieties with strong news continuing the trend trend, while varieties without new expectation will fluctuate relatively smoothly.

First, it is time for precious metals to slow down

I talked with you in the live broadcast class on Thursday. The gold price has been rising with high volatility from October to March this year. After this period, the trend in the past three years is weak. If there is bad news (such as the sharp rate hike of the Federal Reserve in 22 years), it will fall greatly, and if there is no big bad news, it will fluctuate and consolidate. After the end of this week, March will pass. Last week, the gold price surged and fell back, which indicates that the subsequent market will slow down and even have certain correction.

Technically, we should pay attention to the long shadow of gold price last week. If we can't hit last week's high point this week, we can only break the 20-day moving average and form a staged high point. Perhaps the trend is very similar to that after March last year. Pay attention to the support position near 2150 in the short term. Silver, on the other hand, is more technical.

At present, the silver price just meets the adjustment after the long-term trend line. If the subsequent breakthrough occurs, the adjustment here may take 2-3 months. Although silver fluctuates slightly, it is better speculative than gold, so everyone pays attention to it.

Second, the bottom shock characteristics of crude oil remain the same

In the first half of the year, crude oil still fluctuated at the bottom, which was fully expected in the forward-looking post in January this year, and the trend in the next quarter was also in line with expectations.

It is estimated that the 70-90 range will not easily break through in the first half of the year, and there is not much fundamental to be revised at present. As for the news of the terrorist attack on Russia over the weekend, it is a bit sudden, which may boost gold to some extent, but it will not change the pattern of crude oil too much. After all, Russia is currently in conflict with Ukraine, unless the incident involves a third party, that is, the contradiction is enlarged.

If not, the crude oil market will not over-price it, so the bulls should not be too excited, just take it. The tracking technology still takes the 20-week moving average as a reference, that is, around US $75. Observe the support of this price. If You don’t have long positions ,you can consider selling put options below US $75. If they fall below, they will be equivalent to opening positions at a low level, and if they rise, they will receive some option money, which is more suitable for the current oil price tossing market.

$NQ100 Index Main Connection 2406 (NQmain) $$Dow Jones Main Link 2406 (YMmain) $$SP500 Index Main Connection 2406 (ESmain) $$Gold Main 2404 (GCmain) $$WTI Crude Oil 2404 (CL2404) $$WTI Crude Oil Main Line 2405 (CLmain) $