To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is up 3.6% since releasing FSD 12.3 on March 16, reversing down trend.

Have not seen this pace of development at $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ for a very long time...

Offering FSD free trial across all fleets (even better if there can be more flexible pricing) could greatly unlock value.

Existing US fleet:

- ~2.5M vehicles, currently at a 15% FSD attach rate.

- Assuming a 10% increase in attach rate from the free trial, with a mix of $199 monthly subs and one-time $12k purchases -

The implied EPS uplift is $0.30/share, equating to 10% of the consensus FY24 earnings per share of $3.

New vehicles:

- Assuming 2M unit sales and US FSD attach rate increase to 25%

- The implied EPS uplift is $0.20/share, or 6% of the FY24 EPS.

Attach rate >>> pricing/ near-term profits:

For $TSLA, prioritizing the adoption rate over pricing is essential. Unlike most other technologies (ChatGPT included), FSD has no current or foreseeable competition. It has a ton of pricing power in the mid to long-term, but customers need to be locked in.

Without discounts (on the above math), US will have 0.8M FSD subscribers (out of 3M+ units) by the end of this year.

At an assumed 50% discount (with the same bottom-line impact), FSD subscribers could hit 1.5M.

Investors have been eagerly looking for large-scale AI applications to justify the massive GPU spending, and it appears we've just found one.

Do you have plan on $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$