To The Moon

$Carnival(CCL)$ is expected to release earnings on 27 Mar 2024 before the market opens (BMO).

Carnival is expected to post an increase in first-quarter revenue, helped by strong booking trends for cruise vacations despite higher ticket prices. Investors will watch for comments on demand through 2024, the impact of costs, any further disruptions in the Red Sea region, and any forecast updates it provides.

Technicals is showing uptrend and market have been trading positively in after hours on 26 Mar 2024, we could expect some upside coming today.

Carnival (CCL) Last Reported Earnings

CCL last reported earnings on 21 Dec 2023 before the market opened (BMO). CCL shares gained +6.2% the day following the earnings announcement to close at 19.19. Following its earnings release, 96 days ago, CCL stock has drifted -11.3% lower.

From the time it announced earnings, CCL traded in a range between 14.44 and 19.74. The last price (17.03) is closer to the lower end of range.

Estimated implied straddle for upcoming straddle is 9.4%. We could see at least 5% upside in price effect if the comment for 2024 outlook came in positive.

Carnival (CCL) Post Earnings Movement

The options market overestimated CCL stocks earnings move 83% of the time in the last 12 quarters. The predicted move after earnings announcement was ±8.3% on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of 6.3% (in absolute terms).

We might expect some volatility in CCL stock price as the option valuation is overvalued, this suggest price volatility leading into earnings.

Carnival (CCL) Potential Trade Before Earnings - With Strong Buy Sentiment

If we look at the CCL price build up to its earnings release, we could see buying sentiment gaining strength, MACD is also making an upward trend.

I would expect some upside trading for CCL today after its earnings pre-market.

Summary

CCL could provide a positive price upside if their comment for 2024 outlook is positive. Given that travel have returned to pre-pandemic level, I believe the benefit should be shown in CCL upcoming earnings.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section if you think CCL outlook for 2024 would be significant positive to move its stock price?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.