To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 

Tesla (TSLA) delivery estimates are all over the shop and too much uncertainty remains.

I would take the profit if it hit $180.

Bearish sentiment from myself on the Q1 delivery.

Tesla’s first quarter of 2024 has been a puzzling one for Wall Street. Analysts are grappling with varying delivery estimates, and the situation is far from clear-cut. Let’s delve into the details:

1. Previous Performance:

* In the last quarter, Tesla achieved record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles, representing a 20% year-over-year growth rate1.

* For Q1 2023, Tesla delivered 422,875 vehicles.

2. Current Estimates:

* Analysts have been reducing their delivery estimates for Q1 2024.

* Wall Street consensus now hovers around 458,500 deliveries, but individual estimates vary widely.

* Notably, some estimates fall as low as 420,000 deliveries.

3. Potential Implications:

* If Tesla indeed delivers 420,000 vehicles, it would be a significant decline from the previous quarter and even a drop year-over-year.

* Despite adding production capacity, this lower figure could lead to inventory growth, potentially impacting Tesla’s financial results.

* The Cybertruck, in its first full quarter of deliveries, may contribute, but not significantly.

4. Demand and Challenges:

* Tesla faces challenges, including the arson attack on Gigafactory Berlin.

* However, it appears that demand is a critical factor affecting delivery numbers.

* Elon Musk’s request for FSD Beta test drives before each delivery could also impact the workload at quarter-end.

In summary, while anything below 450,000 deliveries would be concerning, 420,000 would be particularly challenging for Tesla. The company’s official Q1 2024 delivery and production numbers are eagerly awaited.

While supply chain woes persist, Tesla’s growth trajectory remains strong, driven by demand, factory expansion, and the potential of self-driving technology🚗