Profit in April's Market Surge : Read to know !
All the reports for March 2024 are out.
Personally, they painted an overall “optimistic” picture.
More importantly, signals from these reports will serve as fuel for the coming April 2024 US market.
Reports recap.
(1) CB Consumer Report for March 2024.
US Consumer Confidence - March 2024.
Data came in at 104.7, -0.1 lower than February’s 104.8. and -2.3 lower than Wall Street’s expectations of 107. (see above)
Overall, consumers are feeling less confident about the future state of US economy.
(2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2023 - 2nd estimates.
US Q4 2024 GDP - final.
On Thu, 28 Mar 2024 - the 2nd and final estimates for US’s Q4 2023 GDP was released.
It has gone from 3.3% (initial) to 3.2% (1st estimate) to 3.4% (2nd & final estimate).
It is “higher” than Wall Street expectations and lower than Q3 2023’s GDP of 4.9%.
Higher estimates of consumer spending, exports and business investment supported the economy during the quarter-under-review.
More importantly, for all of 2023, US economy (world's biggest) grew 2.5% - up from 2022’s 1.9%.
(3) US Michigan Consumer Sentiments for March 2024.
US Consumer Sentiment - March 2024.
The University of Michigan's benchmark Consumer Sentiment Index rose to a final reading of 79.4, from February's 76.9.
This is the highest since July 2021.
This stems from expectations for inflation over a one-year horizon declined to 2.9% from 3.0% in February, matching January's reading,that had been the lowest since December 2020.
(4) US Weekly Jobless claims for week ending 23 Mar 2024
US Weekly jobless claims - 23 Mar 2024
Weekly jobless claims have been “filed” at a very narrow band.
The “good” news is that data is coming in lower than Wall Street expectations.
For week ending 23 Mar 2024, it is also lower than previous week by -2,000 claims.
(5) Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for February 2024.
US PCE - February 2024.
Fri, 29 Mar 2024 Core PCE was definitely a “relief” as far as Wall Street is concerned.
It came in at 2.8%, coincide with Wall Street expectations.
And it was marginally lower (-0.1%) than January’s core PCE reading.
This is in contrast to US’s February Core CPI Inflation report of 3.8% that was +0.1% above Wall Street expectations; resulting in a mini-run in the US market subsequently. (see below)
US CPI - February 2024.
(6) CME Fedwatch tool for June 2024.
CME Fedwatch - June 2024
With the core PCE report out, market is fairly “certain” that the Fed is on track to initiate a first interest cut when the team convenes in June 2024.
Latest CME Fedwatch tool points to a -0.25% interest cut at 61% chance.
Financial institutions and online media are already predicting euphoria in the US market and in particular property market when that happens.
Talk strategy !
Aim & Invest !
With certainty on (a) how US market’s progress in April 2024 and (b) the state of US inflation, how do we navigate as individual investor with our game plan?
Do we:
Be happy-go-lucky and bend to the blowing wind direction?
Do our homework (for a Plan B) now and “buy the dip” when opportunity rears?
There is no right or wrong answer because each of us have varying “risk” tolerance / appetite.
On US stocks that show most potentials, look at my “Must Read” (see below) and my archived trove of PICK posts (recent & past). You will be glad you did.
Remember, “you’ve made your bed, so lie in it”.
Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Give a like & help to Repost ok. Thanks.
Do you think US market will continue to rally this April?
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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Pls help to "Re-post". Tks! Rating is important (to me).
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Good read!!