To The Moon

After gaining 24% last year, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ — the benchmark index used to measure how stocks are performing overall — has continued its bullish run in 2024 by posting a nearly 11% gain through the first quarter of 2024.

Photo illustration of a US dollar paper airplane flying upwards with a stock line trace behind it

According to Reuters, since 1945, April and December are tied as the best-performing months of the year for stocks, with an average return of 1.6%. (September is notoriously the worst, with an average loss of -0.6%.)

During recessions, April’s positive performances can be even more pronounced. In 2008 and 2009 amid the Great Recession, April produced returns of 4.8% and 9.4%, respectively. And in the wake of COVID-19’s arrival, April 2020 saw an enormous 12.7% gain — the 12th best monthly performance for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dating back to 1928.

One theory behind April's positive performance is that investors receive tax refunds that month and inject that money into the market pushing prices higher. No matter what the cause, April is historically such a strong month for stocks that it has only posted losses twice in the past 18 years (in 2012 and again in 2022 during an extended bear market) and was the best performing month in the year seven times dating back to 2001.

For buy-and-hold investors, if the Fed's uncertainty is causing distress, keep in mind that over time stock prices tend to tick upwards, which has been the case with the S&P 500 in 68% of the years it has existed. Notably, a significant amount of those gains have come in the month of April.