To The Moon

Have you got into the rhythm yet? First comes the Jobs reports at the start of each month, then Consumer reports and finally US Economic / Inflation report. After the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report is out at month-end, the cycle repeats all over again. Last week, in my post on overall US economic condition, (click here ! to read), things were looking up. The US stock market was charting new grounds: S&P 500 notched its best first quarter since 2019, with the index rising +10.2%. Meanwhile, both Dow & Nasdaq gained +5.6% and +9.1%, respectively. Unfortunately, on Mon, 01 Apr 2024, US market did a roundabout turn and began tumbling. Does Wall Street have any idea why US market tumbled for 2 days straight? I doubt it very much. Alhough, the following were reasons cited (see below). Question is - do you believe them ? Let’s go through the facts. (1) ISM Purchasing Manager Index (PMI). On 01 Apr 2024, US’s March 2024 Manufacturing PMI came in stronger-than-expected. The latest 50.3 ISM reading: Indicates prices are rising, compared to previous month. Implies inflation pressures are accelerating into the spring. Did market worry, this could influence The Fed to delay interest rate cut? I think “Aye”…. (2) JOLTs US’s Job openings and Labour turnover for February 2024, ticked up slightly as hiring increased, reflecting continual resilience in US labour market. On Tue, 02 Apr 2024, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed there were 8.756 million jobs open at the end of February This is a slight increase from January’s revised data of 8.748 million. And more or less inline with Wall Street expectations of 8.76 million. Hiring rate also picked up slightly to 3.7%, up from January’s 3.6%. (see above) While quits rate held steady at 2.2% for the 4th consecutive month, suggesting ongoing confidence in the job market heading into the spring. (3) Central Banker’s socialization. On Tue, 02 Apr 2024, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester was speaking at a National Association for Business Economics event. Her “hawkish” tone has achieved the desired rubbed off effect, when she said: The patch to bring inflation back to 2% target, would not be smooth. There need to be more evidences of easing price pressures before she is ready to sign-off on near-term rate cuts. To me, this is the most catalytic catalyst that spooked US market that is still pining for a June 2024 interest cut. Did she single handedly dent Wall Street hope again? Mmm….. (4) Long Live The Bond. On Tue, 02 Apr 2024, Treasury yields are back on the march, with benchmark 10-year notes rising to a late November high of 4.371% in early trading. This is the highest rate since 28 Nov 2023. The 2-year notes are also changing hands at 4.722%, on (a) renewed inflation concerns and (b) a pullback in June 2024 interest rate cut bets. Could this have also siphoned off some liquidity from Equities market ? Think so…. Other Jobs Report The Jobs reports are not done yet. At least, there will be 2 more: (see below) ADP Non Farm employment - Wed, 03 Apr 2024. US Non Farm payroll - Fri, 05 Apr 2024. According to data from Bloomberg, the March Non Farm payroll (NFP) report is expected to show 215,000 NFP jobs were added to the US economy in March 2024, with unemployment falling to 3.8%. Does this mean US market will continue to be jittery until Friday? Maybe, just maybe… Where Do We Go From Here? Looking at US pre-market indicators for Wednesday (see above), it just might be the 3rd day of consolidation. With another Fed President Bostic’s “mood dampening” media socialization on 03 Apr 2024, think it will be another day of consolidation for the US market. The carefully selected image (see above) says it all, I am at a forked road. I will take a small position in $Alphabet(GOOG)$ if it falls to my entry price. If it does not meet me pricewise, then it is not meant to be. There will be opportunities ahead. Besides that, I may take a small position in $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ provided the price is right. This comes about after my post on the stock. Click here ! here to read & Repost ok. After a quick search, there don’t seem to be other firms with similar voice-recognition AI apps in the market yet - particularly in the Automobile and Food & Beverage sectors. Strike while the iron is hot, no? Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Give a like & help to Repost ok. Thanks. $SOUN: AI-Sound Investment for the Future ? $XOM energizes portfolio. Read to know ! Profit in April's Market Surge : Read to know ! Do you think US market will continue to pull back today? Do you think you will “buy the dip” when market is this volatile or just sit it out, ride out the storm? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents