To The Moon

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$ is expected to release earnings on 09 April 2024 before the market opens (BMO).

There have been some positive news on the development of cannabis companies last week, Florida Supreme Court on 01 April (Monday) allowed voters to decide on the fate of recreational use of marijuana in the state through a referendum on the November ballot.

Germany recently legalized cannabis. Further, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has recommended reclassification of cannabis as a Schedule III drug. It is likely that federal level legalization of cannabis will be a part of the election promise. Therefore, things seen optimistic on the regulatory front and that the reason for TLRY stock trending higher.

Tilray growth was fuelled by the international medicinal cannabis segment. I would think they could beat the estimate of loss of 5 cents per share, while it is expected to report a 36.3% increase in revenue to $198.5 million from $145.59 million a year ago.

Technical has shown that it is undergoing a bullish crossover, where it might potentially go for a trend reversal.

Tilray (TLRY) Last Reported Earnings

TLRY last reported earnings on 09 Jan 2024 before the market opened (BMO). TLRY shares declined -9.8% the day following the earnings announcement to close at 2.11. Following its earnings release, 89 days ago, TLRY stock has drifted +23.0% higher.

From the time it announced earnings, TLRY traded in a range between 1.60 and 2.97. The last price (2.60) is closer to the higher end of range.

Estimated implied straddle for upcoming earnings is 19.2%. The last time we saw a positive price effect was in Jul 2023, where Tilray has a 15 cents loss.

If we looked at how the price effect might come in, if the earnings per share came in better than 5 cents per share, we could be seeing a more than 15% price effect to the upside. The most important I believe is the return to mainstream for cannabis to use as medical.

Tilray (TLRY) Post Earnings Movement

The options market overestimated TLRY stocks earnings move 75% of the time in the last 12 quarters. The predicted move after earnings announcement was ±14.8% on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of 10.8% (in absolute terms).

This show that option valuation is overvalued and we might expect price volatility when earnings turn out better-than-expected.

Summary

Tilray earnings would be an important to watch if you have been following the news of cannabis development, there have been countries like Germany legalizing cannabis and Florida is conducting a vote. The road to mainstream might be nice.

I feel than Tilray is in a strong position to take advantage when that happens.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Tilray would report better than 5 cents per share and rise post earnings?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.