OptionsDelta
04-10

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ direction felt unclear yesterday, with two main trading paths emerging: either bet that Nvidia will not fall to 800 over these next two weeks, or bet that it will decline to 800. My thinking on the former is to wager that it doesn't fall below 850 this week and doesn't breach 800 next week. Because 825 is a support level and 750 is another support level. Then the sell put options for expirations over the next two weeks has three strike price choices: 850, 800, 750 - you can choose the one fitting your risk appetite.

The contrasting second way to trade is to bet the stock slides towards 800 over the next two weeks, which also gives rise to several strategies, such as three: buy put, sell put, or sell call. Buying put means purchasing the 800 strike put outright here. A sell put trade involves waiting for the stock to drop around 800 to sell those puts. The sell call is to sell calls struck above 950, though the 950 sell-call trader closed that position recently - but 950 remains an overhead resistance level. If the stock does challenge 850 over these next two weeks, it's not wrong to sell call options, but it's best to couple that with some long call protection too.

@OptionsDelta：
$Nvidia (NVDA)$ not breaking down through 870 is one thing, but actually breaking down is another matter. Tuesday's open failing to hold triggered a mini downward chain reaction, with NVDA's decision level reaching 850. The safest put selling level ahead of April 19th over the next two weeks has shifted to 800. The recent sideways trading has also impacted longer-dated option positioning - some June/July far-dated calls, especially those with strikes above 1100, have seen closing sales or new sell openings. As for the $200 million guy's 880 calls, as long as the stock price reaches above 1024 by June 21st, he can break even. Current put option open interest over 10,000 contracts ranked: $NVDA 20250117 130.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20240412 800.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20240412 840.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20240412 850.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20240419 850.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20240419 800.0 PUT$ Excluding the 2025 expiry put, if NVDA drops below 850, there will be significant strike pressure this weekend and next. A drop below 850 could quickly push the stock towards 800, with the potential for a minor squeeze on this leg down. I expect the stock to hold above 850 this week, but 800 is the safety net price. Not going to analyze the call side much, the 900 and 1000 strikes have the most open interest but are largely dead money at this point. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ as per usual has no obvious strike clustering. However, after the overnight surge, new put openings significantly outpaced calls. But overall open put/call ratio for this week's expiry is 1. The overall tone feels more seller-driven though, with more activity in selling calls and puts. This aligns with the current market sentiment - expectations that TSLA doesn't rally much further short-term but also doesn't drop significantly. I'm still holding my $TSLA 20240426 150.0 PUT$ sold puts heading into next week when premium will be mostly eroded. $Reddit (RDDT)$ The $RDDT 20240419 55.0 CALL$ saw a modest increase in volume, but likely insufficient to trigger a squeeze so not worth participating. The market remains in a tight range overall. The $iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN(VXX)$ has seen a lot of weekly call debit spreads like buy 15 sell 20 or buy 13.5 sell 15 strikes. When VXX activity shifts to selling calls, that's when the range is likely to break.
$Nvidia (NVDA)$ not breaking down through 870 is one thing, but actually breaking down is another matter. Tuesday's open failing to hold triggered a mini downward chain reaction, with NVDA's decision level reaching 850. The safest put selling level ahead of April 19th over the next two weeks has shifted to 800. The recent sideways trading has also impacted longer-dated option positioning - some June/July far-dated calls, especially those with strikes above 1100, have seen closing sales or new sell openings. As for the $200 million guy's 880 calls, as long as the stock price reaches above 1024 by June 21st, he can break even. Current put option open interest over 10,000 contracts ranked: $NVDA 20250117 130.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20240412 800.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20240412 840.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20240412 850.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20240419 850.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20240419 800.0 PUT$ Excluding the 2025 expiry put, if NVDA drops below 850, there will be significant strike pressure this weekend and next. A drop below 850 could quickly push the stock towards 800, with the potential for a minor squeeze on this leg down. I expect the stock to hold above 850 this week, but 800 is the safety net price. Not going to analyze the call side much, the 900 and 1000 strikes have the most open interest but are largely dead money at this point. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ as per usual has no obvious strike clustering. However, after the overnight surge, new put openings significantly outpaced calls. But overall open put/call ratio for this week's expiry is 1. The overall tone feels more seller-driven though, with more activity in selling calls and puts. This aligns with the current market sentiment - expectations that TSLA doesn't rally much further short-term but also doesn't drop significantly. I'm still holding my $TSLA 20240426 150.0 PUT$ sold puts heading into next week when premium will be mostly eroded. $Reddit (RDDT)$ The $RDDT 20240419 55.0 CALL$ saw a modest increase in volume, but likely insufficient to trigger a squeeze so not worth participating. The market remains in a tight range overall. The $iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN(VXX)$ has seen a lot of weekly call debit spreads like buy 15 sell 20 or buy 13.5 sell 15 strikes. When VXX activity shifts to selling calls, that's when the range is likely to break.

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