To The Moon

If we look at how the economic data played out last week, we could see $CME Bitcoin - main 2405(BTCmain)$ experiencing a “re-acceleration” of its bull market, this new US economic shifts might trigger a liquidity comes roaring back to the economy this week.

Forget About The Fed. Crypto Bull Market is Next

The market expectation of a rate cut this coming 01 May 2024, look like almost impossible, with only 2.5% possibility, this is what Bitcoin and altcoins think of little hope for U.S. Federal Reserve dropping interest rates soon to attract more liquidity into the economy.

Actually we should be watching Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, instead of Fed for the liquidity flow.

On 29 April 2024, the U.S. Treasury will release the quarterly refunding documentation, which sets out how the government will effectively manage liquidity.

These two liquidity sources should be something we need to watch : the Treasury General Account (TGA) and so-called Reverse Purchase Agreements (RRPs).

As seen below we are seeing tax receipts added roughly $200bn to TGA.

If we look at what US is going to do next, Treasury secretary might calls for U.S. dollar printing to only accelerate toward the upcoming presidential election and afterward.

A $1 trillion TGA drain, $400 million in RRPs or a combination of both is on the table, potentially totaling a $1.4 trillion liquidity injection.

This really could help to push the liquidity spike and help Bitcoin to enter a bull market run.

“Overdue” Slowdown Seen In Bitcoin ETFs

If we look at the knock-on effect of Bitcoin’s mainstream entry becoming a positive feedback loop for price, we need to look at other players in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Despite marking the most successful ETF debut in history, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain far from their full captive audience

If we looked at $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$, the largest product by assets under management excluding the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, their daily inflow streak is over at 71 days, it is not done setting records, so should we be concerned about the recent cooling of inflows?

Here is the list of ETFs by assets all time after first 72 days in the market.

We also need to note that out of all the 10,698 registered funds in the U.S. (incl ETFs, mutual funds, CEFs) $IBIT currently ranks 2nd in YTD flows. While overall allocations remain small thus far, $ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF(ARKB)$ sees the trend gathering speed.

Transaction On Bitcoin Network Increasing -> Good News For Coinbase?

If we looked at the number of transaction for bitcoin one week after the halving event, we could see that the increase have been pretty encouraging, so this might benefit the platform where higher amount of transactions are being processed.

If we looked at how Coinbase have done in 2023, we could see that there is a high non-transaction revenue, but 2024, we might see a different distribution, so I think we could watch $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$

Bitcoin Miner Revenue Declining - Should We Be Concerned?

If we looked at the 7 days moving average for the Bitcoin miner revenue per TH/s, we would notice that there is a sharp decline recently, this is expected because of the effect of the halving event, so we should be aware of which Bitcoin miners would seek to stand out.

If we looked at how miners have traded last week, I would think $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ looks to be in a better shape to continue or even excel despite the effect of halving effects.

Summary

While liquidity spike could help to spark a Bitcoin bull market run, but there might be other areas we need to be aware, the amount of transactions versus the liquidity coming in.

There will be some winners and losers in this movement, as there are some who will survive and take advantage of this liquidity.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think liquidity spike would help Bitcoin to spark a Bull market run.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.