To The Moon

An ancient Chinese proverb that counsels "do nothing, and everything will be done" could sum up the Federal Reserve's latest approach to interest-rate policy.Fed officials will hold their benchmark federal-funds rate steady at its highest level in more than two decades, around 5.3%, at their two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday.Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. As a result, officials are likely to emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady, at a level most of them expect will provide meaningful restraint to economic activity, for longer than they previously anticipated.The Fed's rate outlook hinges on its inflation forecast, and the most recent data raises two possibilities. One is that the Fed's expectation that inflation continues to move lower but in an uneven and "bumpy" fashion is still intact -- but with bigger bumps. In such a scenario, a delayed and slower pace of r