Bull Run Over? US Market Braces for Downturn ?
Saturday.
In my post, dated 25 Apr 2024, I have listed 3 factors that caused market to dip. (click here ! to read)
In my parting words, I believed US market will be jittery on Tues (30 Apr) & Wed (01 May).
Guess what?
US market fell and fell badly on Tuesday: (see above)
DJIA: -1.49% (-570.17 TO 37,815.92).
S&P 500: -1.57% (-80.48 to 5,035.69).
Nasdaq: -2.04% (-325.26 to 15,657.82).
Market trended lower throughout the day and “plunged” 30 mins before 4pm closing.
CB Consumer Confidence Index.
Besides market being jittery about FOMC meeting (just like in the past), the Consumer Confidence report out on Tuesday, depressed the market. (see below)
US consumer confidence deteriorated in April, falling to its lowest level in more than 1-1/2 years.
Consumer confidence index fell to 97.0 for April 2024.
It is the lowest level (a) since July 2022 and (b) from a downwardly revised 103.1 in March.
It is also -7.0 “lower” than Economists’ consensus of 104 (polled by Reuters).
April confidence retreated because consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation.
Consumers are also more concerned about (a) future business conditions, (b) job availability, and (c) income" said Conference Board, Chief Economist - Dana Peterson.
Summary.
The report signaled a potential decrease in consumer spending, a crucial factor for business health and economic growth.
This triggered a pessimistic outlook among investors, leading them to sell stocks and causing the market to fall.
Labour Cost Report.
On Tue, 30 Apr 2024 - the Bureau of Labor Statistics also released the US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q1 2024.
The index that measures compensation and benefits, increased 1.2% from December to March.
This is the highest increase in a year, after rising 0.9% for Q4 2023.
Wages and salaries increased by 1.1% over that same three-month period, while benefit costs also increased by 1.1%.
The data adds to ongoing concerns that persistently high wages are keeping inflation levels elevated.
As a result, this further spooked investors already worried about rising inflation.
There were posts in the media speculating that Mr Powell might mention a further interest hike, in the event that inflation does not cool down.
Quarterly Earnings Results.
To add fuel to fire, corporates’ earnings reported less than Wall Street’s expected earnings:
$AT&T Inc(T)$: reported EPS of $0.55 vs consensus estimates of $0.57.
$T-Mobile US(TMUS)$ reported EPS of $2.00 vs consensus estimates of $2.28.
$Baker Hughes(BKR)$ reported EPS of $0.43 vs Wall Street expectations of $0.48.
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ reported EPS of $0.62 vs Wall Street expectations of $0.61 with a lighter Q2 2024 outlook. It fell by -1.14% and due to fall a further -6.76% when trading resumes on 01 May 2024.
My viewpoints: (mine & mine only)
It is quite certain that current interest rates will remain status quo.
However, Mr Powell may just warn of a possible further hike, if inflation does not cool.
If it comes to that, market might give up more of the remaining gains.
Of course I do not hope it comes to that.
Keeping my fingers and toes crossed.
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This fed chair need to go away, playing politics, manipulating the narrative and markets. Trump will fire this guy
Yes fear is overblown, today some analyst put a lid on fear, but tomorrow and after, fear will be back
The Fed has got to raise interest rates and kill some jobs.. Other choice is stagflation.
Really hard to predict at this moment
Relax and be patient and let your ear hairs play out.
Pls help to "Re-post". Tks! Rating is important (to me).
Would you consider "Follow me" and get first hand read of my Daily new posts? Thanks!). Tks!
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