$BTC Falls to $20K. MSTR Bankrupts. Undue Fear?
Prominent Bitcoin detractor Peter Schiff took to social media “X” (Twitter) to predict that the price of Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency, will plunge back to the $20,000 level.
The gold bug argues that despite the plunge, it would still be a "high" price for the crypto leader.
If price really falls, he estimates that business intelligence company $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$, which is known as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, will have to face an unrealized loss of $3.25 billion.
Schiff has also accused MicroStrategy, that owns a total 214,400 Bitcoins of manipulating the largest cryptocurrency.
The gold bug's recent comment came after the price of Bitcoin slipped to an intraday low of $60,065 after the seemingly underwhelming debut of cryptocurrency ETF in Hong Kong.
On Mon, 29 Apr 2024, MicroStrategy reported its quarterly earnings:
Revenue: US$115.2 million (down -5.5% from 1Q 2023).
Net loss: -US$53.1 million (down by -112% from US$461.2 million profit in 1Q 2023).
Earnings per share (loss): -$3.09 (down by -109.72% from $31.79 in Q1 2023).
Operating expenses skyrocketed to nearly $299 million.
MicroStrategy, first invested in Bitcoin back in 2020, saw its shares surging by an impressive 71% on a YTD basis.
However, the stock was down -16% on Tue, 30 Apr 2024 due to:
Disappointing earnings report.
Bitcoin's underperformance.
Despite the fact that Bitcoin has experienced a rollercoaster ride over the past few years, former MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has not wavered in his conviction.
During a recent interview with CNBC, he predicted that Bitcoin was going to eat gold.
Is this really the case ?
Bitcoin Halving.
On 19 Apr 2024, the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving took place.
The block reward for bitcoin miners was reduced by half, from 6.25 BTC per mined block to 3.125 BTC per mined block.
Sadly, it was lack of fanfare. Blinked and you would have missed it.
No bells were rung, no fireworks lit up the sky, and the price of bitcoin remained relatively stable at around $64,000.
Bitcoin price “peaked” ($66,763 per coin) on 24 Apr 2024 before its downwards descend.
It troughed on 01 May 2024 at approx. $57,069 per coin and has since gained approx. $15,000 per coin all within a week.
My viewpoint: (mine & mine only)
Personally I do not dabble in Bitcoin; not because I do not believe in it.
Rather, it’s a hassle - the whole purchase process and not to mention, storing the coin securely outside of the exchange.
I do not think Bitcoin will crash to $20,000 (so soon) as predicted by Peter Schiff because of:
(1) Limited supply.
Bitcoin has a capped supply, which could drive up its price in the long term due to scarcity; not unless it forked.
(2) Increasing adoption.
More businesses and institutions are adopting Bitcoin, potentially increasing demand.
Interestingly, the younger generations (Gen Z, Millenia) seemed to be strong supporters of cryptcurrencies.
(3) Technological advancements.
Advancements could make Bitcoin more secure and efficient, bolstering its value.
Coming back to the Microstrategy incident - is it prudent to avoid companies that invest its resources in Bitcoin ?
I think there is no need to mention about “good” times. It’s the “bad” times that need a think through.
Listed companies that invest in Bitcoin: (see below)
The information presented above was dated 20 Feb 2024.
It might be a tad “outdated” for some of the records.
MSTR for example now holds a total 214,400 Bitcoins vs 174,530 (in above diagram).
It will be very interesting to find out if these companies that dabble in Bitcoin gain or loss from this volatile investment instrument.
Tesla’s Bitcoin Timeline.
Even $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ “knew” better than to hold onto too many Bitcoin after joining the fray to make a quick profit from it.
It happened when Mr musk was at the height of his popularity - during the days before his “stupid” purchase of Twitter due to the slip of the tongue.
February 2021: Tesla invests in $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin.
March 2021: Tesla offloads 4,320 BTC. Made a quick profit.
2022: Tesla further reduces its Bitcoin holdings by selling 29,160 BTC. Loss big time, Bitcoin at all time low.
2023: Tesla’s Bitcoin balance remains static at 9,720 BTC, indicating no transactions were made during the year. Should profit if sold now.
Will any of the listed companies create history as the first company to declare bankruptcy should a Bitcoin crash occurs? Never say never !
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