To The Moon

$CME Bitcoin - main 2405(BTCmain)$ have been on the downward trend, and Bitcoin is just trading above the 60K level at time of writing. There have been growing divergence in performance between Bitcoin and Ethereum during the 2023-24 cycle thus far.

We are seeing this divergence manifest as weaker price performance for Ethereum, this is due to the weaker market capital rotation trend, as we can see in the below charts, BTC and ETH are having a lower relative to past cycles and ATH breaks.

Initial Sell-Off From Fourth Bitcoin Halving

We saw the fourth bitcoin halving leading to a sell-off initially with BTC prices falling to $57k before recovering swiftly. This recorded the lowest pullback since the FTX saga lows.

Ethereum saw similar price performance, experiencing its maximum drawdown of this cycle which was twice as severe as Bitcoin's. Ethereum's under-performance this cycle relative to Bitcoin is reflected in a measurable lag in speculative interest from the Short-Term Holder cohort.

Both assets still have a relatively low Realized Cap associated with Long-Term Holders, suggesting the market is likely within the early stages of a macro uptrend.

Bitcoin Price Performance After Halving

Investors have been exposed to news of the Bitcoin halving events and this often lead to sell-the-news event historically in the immediate term. So what happen to fourth halving is no surprise as we saw BTC price selling off by -12% and trading into the $55k region on 02 May 2024.

This is the lowest price over the last 1 months, although BTC has recovered to be flat around $60K since the halving date. The prior two halving cycles saw price flat after two weeks, with only the first halving seeing an more than 10% gain.

If we looked at the chart below, we could see that 80-days after halving events tend to be choppy, that is when profit end, or it is in sideways with slight downwards decline of around -5% to -15%.

The most recent one would be 02 May 2024, where we saw BTC drop to $55,965 which is a -12% decline since halving happen on 19 April 2024. This is not the lowest, but something that we need to take note.

Ethereum Price Performance After Halving

Ethereum prices experienced a similar gravity, following the Bitcoin price lower immediately after the halving, and recording the worst post-halving performance on record. However in the following days, ETH prices have similarly recovered, bringing overall performance into positive territory.

Bitcoin Bull Market Correction

Bitcoin price have corrected by -20.3% which is the biggest correction based on closing since the FTX lows in Nov 2022, This is from the ATH at $73K, but I would saw the macro uptrend is still resilient as compared to some small corrections.

If we look at the cycle, we can notice that there is bull market between 2016-2017. That uptrend occurred during Bitcoin early stage and there was no proper products used for this asset class. The rally was actually driven more by the spot trading.

If we go to the 2020-2021, we could see some similarities, I would like to bring us to the most recent current market structure, as we can see from the chart below, we have managed to record quite a number of bull cycles within 2024 and projected to have more bull cycles in later 2024 and 2025.

How Can We Take Advantage Of This Bitcoin Resilient

I personally would be still vested in some of the major crypto mining stocks like $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ and $Riot Platforms(RIOT)$ .

Not forgetting the crypto trading platform $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ , this platform should continue to gain from the fees coming from investors and traders into Bitcoin and other crypto currency.

Summary

I think it is important for us to regularly looked at how Bitcoin have been moving especially we are seeing more ETF coming, and there are news of Ethereum ETFs in the talk as well, will this helped to boost Bitcoin in the current bull cycle?

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Bitcoin would continue to start a new bull cycle?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.