To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I believe that the action of the SP over the past many years is driven by a feverish belief in radical new breakthroughs, both in automotive tech and futuristic non-automotive tech.

Against that backdrop, in the past 10 years or so, Tesla has become expert at ways of making potential tech developments appear to be more credible than they really are. Pair that with overly confident sales projections and the results are electifying (so to speak). If Musk says so, the promise is real. If Musk says they can do it, they will.

The effect there there has been an exaggerated belief im Musk's heady claims that are not validated by tangible outcomes. Or, as in the case of self-driving vehicle tech, a willingness to accept a far more primitive version of the outcome Musk has personally guaranteed.

So the stock goes up, faith in the stock's future gains goes up, and so on. Incredible new narratives arise, fall, and arise again. One example: over and over again, timelines are announced for new models, but they can't be met. Another: reiterated announcements stating that a $25K vehicle is coming, but it never arrives. (The latter seems to have died out recently, at last.)

Yes, of course, there have been endless trade opportunities over the years, and there is no arguing over how lucrative those trades have been. Going forward, Tesla investors who have confidence in the effect Musk narratives have on the stock will continue to push chips on the table. Shorts will continue to play the backside.

Having said that, I think faith in Tesla is in a slide. Diminished credibility is subverting faith. Too many things keep going wrong -- there is a bit of a Boeing effect in place. One thing after another seems to underperform, break, or (to a degree), suggest a strong threat to safety. Witness the Cyberuck recall recently.

Rip Smh GIF