To The Moon

[Back to the... Future? Past?]

This is a good topic for me to do some self reflection as investing principles are just about like a science as it is an art.

Back to the Past

Life was a lot more simple then.

Buy low, sell high. No Unit Trusts, ETFs, Forex, Meme stocks, crypto, e.t.c. You get it.

The case against the past is legit.

Things don't repeat exactly the same way. And attempting to forecast based on the past is like trying to predict the future based on your childhood likes and dislikes. Past performance, is NEVER a guarantee for future success.

The flip argument is equally convincing. History doesn't repeat itself but it certainly rhymes. Ponzi schemes will appear regardless of time. Foolish people will sell low and buy high.

Why?

Because fundamentally human behaviour has not evolved beyond Greed, foolishness and stupidity. Because fundamentally, humans still have emotions. Because fundamentally, our memory is short termed.

Look at how many times have we repeated our mistakes? I have. More than once.

I recalled spotting$DBS Group Holdings(D05.SI)$  at $8 during the 2008 crisis and not taking action. Made so many stupid investment and trading mistakes. Will my principles be based on the past? You bet.

(There's an image of an old game I used to play. Played it before?[Lovely]  )

[Back to the Future]

The past is gone. The future is next.

That's where future oriented principles become important. Just looking on the past, your investing becomes very defensive and boring.

The future however, requires optimism, 2nd level thinking and a certain level of intelligence to position size.

Future based investing is important in both the quantitative and qualitative sense. What numbers and ratios are telling you that the future is going to be bright? What is the business growth story? What is the total accessible market?

These are just a few of the considerations.

Of course hallucinating about the future can be disastrous. CEOs and management will ALWAYS be overly optimistic, so always discount their opinions.

What do I do? I look for the opposite. Read the anti thesis. Speak to people on the ground. Touch the brick.

For example, I use$Alphabet(GOOGL)$  products, talk to people using Alphabet stuff and even visited their SG regional HQ recently.

(Google is the future isn't it?)

[Back to the Present]

Essentially, I would take both my set of Past and Future principles and look at now. Examine my assumptions and test the best and worst case scenarios. I would also ask if I can sleep at night investing in this stock or area.

Sleep is so precious. You know what I mean once you lose it.

And after ticking the checkboxes and examining my conviction, then making the trigger after reviewing my FA and TA.

(Being present like in a Japanese Tea ceremony is so essential.)

What do you think of this process?

Is the past, future or present more important to you?

Please Like, Share and Comment. It's so important to me. Hope to learn from you.

@CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger @TigerStars 

@daz88888888 @LMSunshine @melson @Bonta @GoodLife99 @SirBahamut 

And if you are still reading this far, I got a little secret to share. If all goes well, I will be tracking to touch the brick of a very important place to all traders and investors here.

Guess where?[Grin] [Grin]