Macro Analysis for Gold
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!
1.
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ $Gold - main 2408(GCmain)$ The Federal Reserve's interest rate swaps show that the Fed will accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts in 2024.
Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece": The imbalance in the U.S. labor market continues to ease. Job vacancies fell below 8.1 million in April, and the job vacancy-to-unemployment ratio fell to 1.24, reaching the level of October 2019.
Image
2.
Trading day Tuesday (June 4): International gold/London gold fell back after encountering resistance, and still fluctuated under pressure below the middle track. Therefore, before breaking through the middle track resistance and falling below the 60-day moving average support, it is still treated as a line shock, and the break can be followed up.
Specifically, the price of gold opened at $2351.33/ounce in the Asian market, and first fluctuated in a narrow range, recording an intraday high of $2352.60, and then encountered resistance and fell back, and maintained pressure shocks. At the end of the session, the short force increased, and continued to fall to around $2325.
Although it rebounded, it fell again in the early US session, and recorded an intraday low of $2315.53 at 22:00. Finally, it bottomed out again, but encountered resistance at $2330, and maintained shock reduction, and finally closed at $2326.73, with a daily amplitude of $37.07, closing down $24.6, a drop of 1.05%.
In terms of influence, the US dollar index showed an upward trend during the Asian and European sessions, coupled with technical resistance, causing gold prices to fall continuously after recording the intraday high. Although the US JOLTs job vacancy data for April showed signs of economic weakness and gave up some gains, the 10-year US Treasury yield continued to fall, which boosted the market, but the strength was limited.
Due to the strengthening of the US dollar index and investors' wait-and-see attitude before the release of non-agricultural data, the trend was still under pressure below the middle track resistance, and the decline was maintained, and finally fell again, and the performance closed down.
3.
Outlook for today Wednesday (June 5): international gold opening continue to first stop running, the dollar index, although the daily chart has stopped falling, but still maintains in the falling trend and average pressure, the weekly chart is also in the middle rail line below, although not completely below the rebound trend line support, but the accompanying indicators to maintain the development of short signals, the probability of falling below the support for further down, and support for the price of gold, and therefore, the price of gold will continue to maintain in the Fluctuations above the 60-day average;
U.S. bond 10-year yield daily chart trend touched the main chart lateral support, short-term demand for a stop, but the Bollinger band opening downward, the attached chart indicators to maintain the short signal, support strength is limited, there will be a risk of falling through, the weekly chart is in the middle of the rail and back to the trend line support position, but from the monthly chart, the trend fell below the May-October averages, is expected to fall to the middle of the rail target, so the weekly chart support will be a high probability of falling through, and support for the price of gold,. Therefore, before the gold price fell below the 60-day average, shock to be treated as a recovery.
Intraday will focus on the U.S. May ADP employment (10,000 people), Canada to June 5 central bank interest rate decision, the U.S. May S&P Global Services PMI final value, the U.S. May ISM non-manufacturing PMI and other data, the market is expected to be mixed, however, I believe that, although ADP is expected to reduce the price of gold, but according to the lower job openings yesterday to see the ADP employment or will be elevated, and bearish! Gold prices, in addition, the Canadian interest rate decision is expected to cut interest rates, and will boost the dollar, while the economic data is also expected to be good, so the overall point of view, the probability will be collectively biased in favour of the negative gold prices, so today's transactions continue to sell orders mainly!
Secondly, the fall of the day, the price repeatedly test 2320 support, and there is a false break situation, the price repeatedly test a support position, indicating that the support position of the support role in the weakening of the multiple tests, is bound to form a break situation, that is to say, the disc price has a great opportunity to break the 2320 support position, the downward extension, and in the real downward extension of the support of the 2315 support is still valid, the disc prices! Still in the range, and did not break the pattern, the range meandering run is still continuing; intraday above the line of attention to 2336-38 near the short-term pressure, the main pressure is concerned about the 2340-43 test, below continue to pay attention to the 2320-15 area of contention, looking forward to breaking!
Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
https://x.com/TradersXauusd/status/1798198219585073319
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
