Market Cycle Guidebook - The global growth pulse is turning up
Some of the key takeaways from the latest edition:
-The global growth pulse is turning up
--soft data is trending distinctly “less bad”
--likewise the slowdown in hard data growth rates is turning around
--and even the leading indicators are turning up from previous warning signs
---hence the macro edge risk of reacceleration and inflation resurgence is credible
--investors need to think more about the idea of reacceleration
---(yet we continue to monitor for downside/recession risk signs)
-Central banks move into pause mode, and even pivot in places
--the Fed remains on pause, with a high hurdle for cuts or hikes
---others pivot: Sweden, Europe, Canada all cutting rates
---EM has collectively pivoted to rate cuts
----(notably China — making steps towards larger stimulus)
--the bulk of tightening is likely now behind us
---albeit the damage may already have been done (long + variable lags)
----and the global economy still faces a hurdle of higher rates
---thus the macro edge risk of deflation and recession is also there
--re-pivoting is also a risk, as some banks have moved back to hikes
-Constructive on risk assets, but highly selective and wary of risks
--See Value in government bonds, commodities, defensive stocks, EM
-Tactically bullish on commodities (previous bearish)
--medium-term technical signals say risks skewed to the upside
--underinvestment means a new higher floor price across commodities
-the “macro edge risks” have very important and distinct market implications
--substantial opportunities (and risks) lie ahead…
Key features of the Market Cycle Guidebook:
-Instant overview of: global economic cycle, monetary policy, and valuations
-Market performance snapshot & commentary/highlights
-Summary views across asset classes (short and medium term); "cheat sheet"
-TAA/DAA guide visually mapping those views to recommended positioning
-Monthly updated Capital Market Assumptions
-And of course, over 70 charts illuminating the key medium-term drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe
-Australia/New Zealand appendix (since we're down this part of the world!)
https://www.topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cycle-guidebook-may-2024-0f7
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