To The Moon

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Sentiment has undergone a partial reset.Short-term technicals remain tenuous (chart 3).ex-Mag 7 Earnings are set to outpace Mag 7 later this year.Small cap stocks are extreme cheap vs largeInheritances are on the rise, and margin debt is on the decline1. Sentiment SnifflesThe latest surveys finally showed some reset in investor sentiment, with the combined bulls vs bears reading from the AAII + II surveys dropping down to neutral. This would be consistent with a bull market correction (shaking out of excess optimism).2. Fund Flows Following on, it’s interesting to note how the market correction comes at

This week I covered the following topics/ideas: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ 1. GSV vs ULG: Global Small Value (GSV) continues to trade near-record cheap relative valuations vs USA Large Growth (ULG), but there are some nuances to this key theme.2. Global vs US: Wary of false dawns, but see tentative turn in technicals, a path to more promising fundamentals, against

How to use valuation signals for multi-asset investment analysis and decision makingLearning GoalsUnderstand application of valuation concepts in multi-asset investingUse relative value principles for active asset allocation decision makingApply value signals to gauge risk vs opportunity in a multi-asset contextConceptsValuations are an integral input for multi-asset investing.  They tell us information about expected risk and opportunity both for individual asset classes, and in relation to other assets — helping us prioritize allocations and manage portfolios. As an asset allocator, your job is to navigate risk, return, and opportunity-cost over typically longer-term timeframes but certainly through cycles and short-term gyrations.  Extremes in absolute and relative valuat

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ So far the market correction has seen a -5.5% drawdown.Technicals remain tenuous (bearish divergence, break of the 50dma, breach of short-term support).The correction comes from a starting point of very bullish sentiment.Historically equal-weighted has beaten cap-weighted.Companies are a

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ The S&P500 is sitting just above its 50-day moving average.A couple of short-term risk indicators are lighting up.US investors a

This week I covered the following topics/ideas: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ 1. Treasuries:  It’s a case of higher for longer risk …for longer as elevated inflation, resilient nominal growth, and paused

While all eyes are on surging gold prices, industrial metals have been quietly achieving… $iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust(GSG)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ A few months ago I outlined how industrial metals were at the center of several key macro/thematic cross currents, and my view on this if anything has become stronger.This chart is going to be the first to know about which “macro edge risks” play out this year: recession and deflation if it breaks support vs reacceleration and resurgence if it breaks higher.Not only is there increasing evidence of reacceleration in the data (leading indicators turning up, manufacturing PMI

Highlights + key points from this week’s charts:The macro is not market friendly as geopolitical risk boils over and higher-for-longer risk comes back into focus.Buybacks are set to rise as CEO confidence rebounds.Energy stocks are breaking out, and allocations to the sector are light.Older people own a greater share of stocks (while 40-54yr olds get squeezed).Stocks are expensive, commodities are cheap. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ $Nasdaq100

Asset Class Returns in March 2024-Stocks up, bonds up-Stocks up more-Commodities also making a strong showingQ1 it's developed equities and commodities in the lead, fixed income and REITs lagging behind $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ ImageScreenshot 2024-04-02 083746.pngThe charts and tables below present market performance data for the assets we calculated capital market assumptions for.  Every effort has been made to ensure the analysis is accurate and correct, however we assume no liability for any errors or omissions or any representations made by users of this information.  Use at your own risk, and to all purposes your own respo

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Demand for hedging is at very low levels.Yet, most people think a correction is on the horizon.Equal vs Cap-Weighted relative performance is at an extreme.Small caps are extreme cheap vs large caps (for a reason?).A rising proportion of US IPOs are foreign companies.Overall, it seems the strong persistent upward run in markets has lulled investors into a sense of calm and complacency. Implied volatility is at the lows, likewise demand for defensive assets. Reminds me of the adage that hedging costs the least when you don’t need it, and the most when you need it…1. Happy New Month!  The S&P500 c