US Market Peaks or Dips on Fri, 28 June ?
This week (June 24 - 28), is the final trading week of the month, the quarter, and the first half of 2024 will greet investors with:
A light smattering of corporate results.
A rush to superlatives to characterize another consensus-busting period for markets.
A final key inflation reading.
(1) Corporate Results.
The earnings calendar will be in a lull this week.
Earnings results from following companies, could (hopefully) be indicative on what’s in-store in the comng weeks and month:
$FedEx(FDX)$. Tue, 25 June. PM.
$Micron Technology(MU)$ . Wed, 26 June. PM.
$Nike(NKE)$. Thu, 27 June. PM.
Of the 3 stocks, all reporting earnings after market has closed, it is very likely that Micron will be most closely watched.
For the simple reason that everyone wants to know - how robust AI demand remains across its portfolio.
Based off that, postulate $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and $Broadcom(AVGO)$ impending quarterly earnings?
Micron YTD performance
Micron is expected to report better-than-expected earnings in the last quarter, all thanks to the AI boom.
The chipmaker reported revenue of $5.82 billion in its last earnings report, surpassing Wall Street expectations of $5.33 billion.
As a result of the above, its stock’s YTD performance has been up by +69.47%.
Nike's report comes at a crucial time for the retailer, because its shares has fallen -8.79% YTD. (see above)
It is working hard to fend off competition from rivals like Adidas and relatively new upstarts like $On (ONON)$ and $Deckers's (DECK) $- Hoka brand.
(2) Former Foes Face-off.
Come Thu, 27 Jun 2024, outside of market hours (@9pm EST), some investors attention will also likely be diverted to CNN’s hosting of Presidential debate.
This will be a first of two debates, in US history between a sitting President (Biden) and a former President (Trump); on the grounds of them being the presumptive nominees.
* Recap - May 2024 CPI.
Earlier on 12 Jun 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation continuing to cool.
May 2024 core CPI (YoY) was 3.4%. (see above)
This was -0.2% lower than April’s data (3.6%)
And -0.1% lower than Analysts’ consensus (3.5%).
Core PCE for April 2024
(3) Fed’s Preferred Inflation Report.
Fri, 28 Jun 2024 morning will bring investors the May reading on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
The Fed's preferred inflation measure will be for both (i) headline and (ii) core, inflation data.
Preliminary Forecast for May:
PCE (MoM): 0.1%. This would mark the slowest monthly rise since November 2023 (0.1%).
PCE (YoY): 2.6%.
Core PCE (MoM): 0.1%.
Core PCE (YoY): 2.6%. This marks the least annual rise since March 2021.
Even before the PCE data is released, analysts and reporters are at it again, speculating that with the May data out, a Fed interest cut in September 2024 becomes a possibility once again. (see above)
My viewpoints: (mine only)
US pre-market indicators for 24 Jun 2024.
Looking at US pre-market indicators, it is a mixed signal. (see above)
Looking at the economic reports out this week, none will be able to excite the market except for Friday’s inflation report.
Looking at the corporates; quarterly earnings, only those that I have briefly touched on would draw some interests.
In light of these “lacklustre” events, US market should be jittery until Friday.
The Fed members will be socializing again this week. (see above)
Should be able to get overall Fed’s perspective of US interest rates for the coming months up especially, pivotal September 2024.
On Twitter’s posting by unusual_whale (18 Jun 2024) that Nvidia’s CEO Mr Jensen Huang has sold 312 million worth of shares as per pre-planned 10b5-1 schedule — was this the catalyst that caused Nvidia to consolidate from Thu, 20 Jun 2024 onwards ?
Looking at Nvidia’s pre-market stock price, the king chip-maker is poised to consolidate further on Monday.
With its weightage, it will continue to exert downwards pressure on the S&P 500 index.
Should Nvidia falls below $120 per share, is this a signal to buy ?
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Do you think Nvidia will continue to consolidate this week ?
Do you think US market will continue to pull back until Friday to close off June 2024 on a high note?
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Modify on 2024-06-25 13:55
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