To The Moon

Silver continued to pull back after starting a wave of strong gains in May. Although there have been some fluctuations in the past 3-4 weeks, the overall downward correction trend is very obvious. In particular, it should be noted that during this process, the pull-up-fast shipment mode and the upper shadow line on the weekly line all indicate that the current selling pressure is not over yet.

Judging from the weekly silver line, only one week closed up in the past five weeks, and there was also a relatively obvious upper shadow line that week. In the other 4 weeks, half is a real negative line with a drop of 2-3%, and the other half is also a bearish mode. Although the corresponding gold is also a rebound and selling behavior, there is still a positive line supporting the scene on the weekly line.

On the daily chart, the situation is even more unsatisfactory. After almost all the slightly strong rebound K-lines, they quickly followed the more destructive big decilne.

In other words, the efforts of the bulls are easily disintegrated by the bears. As a result, although the silver price has returned to the vicinity of the previous breakthrough, there is no good sign of bottoming out and stabilizing, and the market will most likely need more time or space to correct. It should be noted that if the subsequent decline breaks through the low of 26.25, it may mean a change in the trend, and silver will return to the relatively weak and unable to strengthen situation in the past few years.

Some investors and market participants believe that the recent trend of most assets has been affected by changes in the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cut, but this is not the case from the 10-year U.S. bond yield.

The steady decline in yields means that the pricing of interest rate cuts is still relatively obvious, but liquidity expectations or investor confidence are not ideal. Most commodities and risk assets either traded sideways or fluctuated downwards, and the ECB's interest rate cuts did not make a substantial change.

Even for the strong U.S. stocks, in fact, if you remove the main leading brothers, you will find that many stocks have weakened significantly. The situation in the currency circle is similar. BTC and ETH are relatively resilient, and all altcoins have been cut in half or 70% of the decline.

The situation of local bull market and large-scale monkey market/bear market has greatly weakened the current profit-making effect, and even when the index rises, it is commonplace to lose money in your own account.

It is difficult to say whether the market is short of money or news to boost confidence, but we believe that there are three ways to advance in the future.

The first is to suppress first and then rise, relying on the results of the general election to synchronize with the victory of the Democratic Party, then the current weakness will end before and after the general election, and then set sail again; The second type needs to end the adjustment as soon as possible, and launch an obvious bullish offensive before the end of summer.

In this case, the US data starting next month needs to continue to support interest rate cuts, rather than good and bad as in previous months; The third is that the harvest has already started, and now it is shipped by maintaining a relatively sideways market, and finally runs away with the barrel.

The probability of the third one is not high, because the carnival atmosphere does not seem to be reflected in most assets, and it is impossible for more global "leeks" to catch up. For the remaining two possibilities, we only need to look at the data starting in the next two months to draw a general conclusion.

For ordinary investors, it is the best solution to choose top assets and stay away from relatively weak targets. If the comprehensive supplementary increase comes in the future, you can consider appropriate position swaps. But we believe that the leading brother will still be the core target throughout this round of market.

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