yyhlaing
06-29

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@OptionsDelta：
It seems like after Nvidia's stock split, its shares have become like the free eggs handed out at supermarkets, with investors from all over the world lining up to claim them. This has led to the bizarre scenario where Nvidia's total options trading volume far exceeds that of the S&P 500. The old institutional traders focused on GameStop must be howling with envy, watching in dismay as the retail frenzy they dreamed of is instead playing out in Nvidia. However, after a few days, SPY options have finally reclaimed the top spot in terms of trading volume. More accurately, it's not that SPY overtook Nvidia, but rather Nvidia's volumes declined, though they still exceed those of QQQ. With waning retail enthusiasm, market makers can now better control the flows. Based on the open interest in Nvidia calls, Friday's close will likely be below $125. But puts are trickier to forecast - without the overhang from the large 110 put buyers, I'd expect around $120. Yesterday we saw notable call selling in TSM and MU: Sale of $TSM 20240712 175 CALL$ Sale of $MU 20240712 145 CALL$ I'm grouping these two together, as I view them as essentially the same trade - a call for two weeks of semiconductor sector consolidation. Apple's trajectory is similar, but with a higher call strike sold, suggesting relatively more strength: Sale of $AAPL 20240712 200 PUT$ Sale of $AAPL 20240712 225 CALL$ But the most mind-boggling was the massive 64,000 lot roll up in Microsoft calls to the MSFT 20240816 440 CALL$ for $150M in premium. Just imagine how stellar their earnings must have been to inspire such aggressive call buying ahead of broader consolidation.
It seems like after Nvidia's stock split, its shares have become like the free eggs handed out at supermarkets, with investors from all over the world lining up to claim them. This has led to the bizarre scenario where Nvidia's total options trading volume far exceeds that of the S&P 500. The old institutional traders focused on GameStop must be howling with envy, watching in dismay as the retail frenzy they dreamed of is instead playing out in Nvidia. However, after a few days, SPY options have finally reclaimed the top spot in terms of trading volume. More accurately, it's not that SPY overtook Nvidia, but rather Nvidia's volumes declined, though they still exceed those of QQQ. With waning retail enthusiasm, market makers can now better control the flows. Based on the open interest in Nvidia calls, Friday's close will likely be below $125. But puts are trickier to forecast - without the overhang from the large 110 put buyers, I'd expect around $120. Yesterday we saw notable call selling in TSM and MU: Sale of $TSM 20240712 175 CALL$ Sale of $MU 20240712 145 CALL$ I'm grouping these two together, as I view them as essentially the same trade - a call for two weeks of semiconductor sector consolidation. Apple's trajectory is similar, but with a higher call strike sold, suggesting relatively more strength: Sale of $AAPL 20240712 200 PUT$ Sale of $AAPL 20240712 225 CALL$ But the most mind-boggling was the massive 64,000 lot roll up in Microsoft calls to the MSFT 20240816 440 CALL$ for $150M in premium. Just imagine how stellar their earnings must have been to inspire such aggressive call buying ahead of broader consolidation.

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