Jobs Report Rule US Market This Week. True?
Economic Reports Ruled Last Week.
Last week was all about US economic reports and the extent of their influences:
Consumer Confidence report - Tue, 25 June. Dipped marginally compared to May’s data.
New Home Sales - Wed, 26 June. Weaker compared to April’s data.
Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) final estimates - Thu, 27 June. Fell by -58.82% compared to Q4 2023 GDP.
Weekly Jobless claims - Thu, 27 June. Dips marginally compared to previous week.
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) - Fri, 28 June. Fell by -0.2% from April’s data.
Reports’ Effect on Market.
Overall, above economic reports did not manage to exert significant pressure to drive market way up or down.
In the end, US market put up a mixed performance.
When market closed on Friday:
DJIA: -0.17% to 39,118.86.
S&P 500: +0.02% to 5,460.48.
Nasdaq: +0.52% to 17,732.60.
When market closed on July 2024 (Q3) - first trading day.
DJIA: +0.13% to 39,169.52.
S&P 500: +0.27% to 5,475.09.
Nasdaq: +0.83% to 17,879.30.
Looking Ahead.
This week will again be a short trading week.
On Thu, 04 July 2024, America will celebrate federal holiday - Independence Day.
It holds importance for America because it was the country declaring independence from the Kingdom of Great Britain, back in 1776.
Apart from that, the jobs reports will be squarely back in focus; namely:
US Jobs opening and Labour Turnover surveys (JOLTs) - May 2024). Tue, 02 Jul 2024.
ADP National Employment report (June 2024). Wed, 03 Jul 2024.
Weekly Jobless claims (29 Jun 2024). Thu, 04 Jul 2024* - public holiday.
Non-farm payroll (June 2024). Fri, 05 Jul 2024.
(1) Jobs Opening and Labour Turnover survey.
Analysts have forecasted May’s data to come in at 7.86 million open jobs. (see above)
This represents a -2.47% decline in job openings compared to April 2024.
If forecast is accurate, it will be the first jobs openings sub 8 millions since April 2021.
Red line is Estimates
(2) ADP National Employment.
US private non-farm payroll for June 2024 is forecasted to come in at 156,000. (see above)
This will be +4,000 more jobs compared to May 2024’s data.
(3) US Non-farm Payroll.
US jobs market is expected to come in with 188,000 jobs. (see above)
This would be a -30.88%% fall, compared to May’s data of 272,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to remain status quo at 4%.
Rounding off, hourly wage for June 2024 (0.3%)is expected to fall -0.1% compared to May’s data.
Following corporates will be reporting their Second Quarter earnings. (see below)
Will they be able to come out unscathed, unlike so many other corporates? Eg. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$, $Micron Technology(MU)$ etc
$Polestar Automotive(PSNY)$ . Thu, 04 Jul 2024. Will backers Volvo & Geely see a turnaround for their investments in Polestar?
$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.(FFIE)$. Thu, 04 Jul 2024. Will this “phoenix” be able to report its Q1 2024 earnings and spring a surprise on investors, simultaneously?
The bigwig corporates’ earnings review will only come from 15 Jul 2024 onwards; with financial institutions firing the first salvo, as usual.
My viewpoints: (mine only)
I think the market will still be putting up a mixed bag performance this week.
This week’s quarterly earnings by mostly Tier-2 companies will not have a significant impact on the market.
Will stay on the sideline until after 4th July; not unless there are very compelling bargains to be had.
Otherwise, I think traders will mostly be selling on the eve of Independence Day.
If there is any action, it should come post Independence Day on Friday when US Non-Farm payroll will be released prior to market opening..
Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Give a like & help to repost ok. Thanks.
Do you think US market will be super buoyant on the run up to 4th of July Independence Day?
Do you think Friday’s US Non-Farm payroll report will be the catalyst driving US market to close on a “high” on the first week of Q3 2024?
If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?
Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Uncle gave opinion on yesterday mistakes.
EIA data is good, the market doesn't follow.
Election year is always good
Pls help to "Re-post". Tks! Rating is important (to me).
Would you consider "Follow me" and get first hand read of my Daily new posts? Thanks!). Tks!
Googogogogo
Great article, would you like to share it?
Great article, would you like to share it?