US Job Market Still Strong: May JOLTs Revealed.
US’s May 2024 Jobs Openings.
Job openings unexpectedly picked up in May 2024, as investors had been watching for further signs of cooling in the labour market after last month's data showed open jobs in the US fell to a three-year low.
New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Tue, 02 Jul 2024 showed there were 8.14 million jobs open at the end of May. (see below)
This is an increase of +2.78% from the 7.92 million job openings in April 2024.
April's figure has revised lower from the 8.06 million open jobs initially reported.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the report to show 7.95 million openings in May 2024.
The data come as the labor market has moved into closer focus over the past several weeks.
Rising weekly jobless claims and a steady uptick in the unemployment rate have economists wary that cracks may be forming underneath what's otherwise been viewed as a strong and resilient labour market.
The Tuesday's data did little to show that the “worry” outcome is rapidly approaching.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed 5.8 million hires were made during the month, a slight uptick from April.
Hiring rate remain status quo at 3.6%, unchanged from April.
Quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, held steady at 2.2%, in Tuesday’s report.
Meanwhile, the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers held steady at 1.2, in line with pre-pandemic levels, supporting the idea that the labor market appears to be normalizing rather than fully chilling for now.
On 24 Jun 2024, during San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly’s socialization, she noted that the labour market is moving toward a point where a "benign" slowing outcome could be less likely.
She worried that fewer job openings would lead to more unemployment.
Luckily in May's data, there were actually slightly more job openings (4.9%) than the month prior (4.8%).
She also stressed that controlling inflation isn't the Fed’s only concern.
"At this point, inflation is not the only risk we face," Daly said. "We will need to keep our eyes on both sides of our mandate — inflation and full employment — as we work to achieve our goals."
The Central Bank needs to balance (a) keeping inflation down and (b) creating enough jobs. Both are important goals.
Friday - Non Farm Payroll.
This Friday will bring the next major labour market update with the closely followed nonfarm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
According to data from Bloomberg, current forecast has 195,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy in June, with unemployment holding steady at 4%.
$Bank of America(BAC)$, Economist, Michael Gapen commented that a report along these lines (of data) would continue to show a labour market that is "cooling but not cool."
JOLTs vs Non-Farm payroll.
Just to be clear, there is a difference between the 2 types of Jobs report released by US government. (see above)
It is clear that there is still a lot work to be done by US Central Bank, to bring inflation under control. Will the day come ?
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Do you think the JOLTs report shows that US labour market is still going strong?
Do you think Friday’s US Non-Farm payroll report will be the catalyst required to drive US market to close on a “high”?
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Well just more part time jobs but less full time ones
Doesn’t mean the economy is good hehe
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