To The Moon

$ Asmax (ASML) $ in the European market before the release of earnings, because of a "guidance is less than expected", a chain reaction, with the collapse of the Asian market of Japanese and Korean semiconductor companies, but also their own stock prices to collapse.More importantly, the U.S. semiconductor companies will also be "sold"?

The question is, what percentage of investors will believe "it's just ASML"?

TSMC (TSM) reports on Thursday, but because ASML reports first, TSM shares were dragged down by more than 3%, which is kind of a big swing before earnings.But there are a couple differences between TSM and ASML.

1. TSM's earnings estimates can be extrapolated more from the chip companies' capital expenditure budgets.According to $Nvidia(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ $ Sony (SONY)$ <a14>$Mayville Technologies (MRVL)$ and others have given guidance for 2024-2025 that TSM has basically secured;

2. But accordingly, TSM's capex growth rate is not as aggressive as those downstream chip makers, while supplier ASML instead enjoys less than equivalent growth expectations.

3. Because of customer concentration, TSM and ASML do not have the same pricing power, TSM can have higher pricing power, so the price hike a while ago (which has been accepted by major customers) can also bring significant incremental volume to the next few quarters

So if there are segments, then TSM is considered a king while ASML can only be a gold.

From another perspective, ASML is just taking the lead in a node of the semiconductor cycle that is -

What to do when market expectations become too saturated and exceed a company's own guidance?

• It may be just ASML's problem today that brings about the prying of the entire sector, but the more the market anticipates it

• One day it will be the turn of TSM and NVDA, the secondary market funds, certainly will not wait until the arrival of that day to start reacting.

• Therefore, the next semiconductor cycle, it is likely to be in the cycle of "some people bottoming out, some people run retreat".

Thoughts on TSM's earnings report on Thursday:

1. The current quarter earnings beat is base fuck.

2. Due to the price increase is expected in, guidance should be higher than the market consensus expectations.

3. Rising risk aversion in the broader market and capital outflows from declining semiconductor concentration will make it difficult to go further from previous highs.

So the earnings trading strategy I chose was a simple SELL PUT