JacksNiffler

8 years Analyst of high-quality U.S. &HKEX stocks.

    • JacksNifflerJacksNiffler
      ·10-24 15:40

      Will Costco be another Netflix?

      A report from Morgan Stanley (MS) suggests that Costco is having a "Netflix moment," citing $Costco(COST)$ 's ongoing crackdown on "account sharing," as with $Netflix(NFLX)$ The crackdown on sharing is expected to convert 4 million previously unpaid members in North America and generate a 5 per cent uplift on 76 million users globally.j On this basis, the measure is estimated to result in 8% membership growth and $0.54 EPS growth in the FY2025 base scenario, and 12% membership growth and $0.82 EPS growth in the bull scenario....I think there are some similarities and differences to focus on.Similarities:Also targeting "card dabbling" sharing users, who tend to be price sens
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      Will Costco be another Netflix?
    • JacksNifflerJacksNiffler
      ·10-23

      Best Option Strategy For Slightly Declining Market?

      Recently, a lot of users posting short orders of $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , but the strong stock price has made them swallow their losses after NVIDIA continues to make new highs.Whether it's a game of "short-term pullbacks" or the anticipation of an "inflection point," options can often be used to make gains while reducing losses.Compared to naked shorting, buying Put and selling Call on a single leg, a combination of option strategies is often more suitable for investors with limited risk appetite.In the case of PUT, for example, is there a strategy that can satisfy both:Being bearish and short, with the opportunity to eat profits on retracements;The ability to minimise losses and even still make a profit if things don't go as planned and the stock m
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      Best Option Strategy For Slightly Declining Market?
    • JacksNifflerJacksNiffler
      ·10-17

      NFLX Q3 Earnings Option Strategy: Asymmetric Short

      $Netflix(NFLX)$ Q3 earnings report, strategy for the quarter: short-biased "short volatility strategy"In terms of volatility, choose an asymmetric condor with a bias towards SHORT volatility; andBe bullish on earnings, but keep a short mindset.Explain the reasoning:I'm actually not down on NFLX's earnings, instead it should beat expectations, especially since the ad business was just getting off the ground in Q3 last year, the base should be very low, and now it may be able to eat a wave of growth benefits.Again, because of the crackdown on shared accounts, the number of subscribers will probably continue to grow, and ARPU will also be not weak because of the advertising business.The call may also announce information about Squid Game 2 and price
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      NFLX Q3 Earnings Option Strategy: Asymmetric Short
    • JacksNifflerJacksNiffler
      ·10-16

      Boeing Needs Additional Cashflow

      $Boeing(BA)$ is facing a severe financial crisis, exacerbated by a month-long strike and ongoing operational challenges. The company has announced plans to raise up to $25 billion through stock and debt offerings, alongside a $10 billion credit facility from major banks. This initiative aims to address significant cash flow issues as Boeing has reported core operating losses exceeding $33 billion over the past six years.Financial SituationDebt Increase: Boeing's long-term debt has surged to approximately $53 billion, up from $10.7 billion in March 2019, largely due to the fallout from two fatal crashes of the 737 Max and subsequent production halts.Strike Impact: The ongoing strike by 33,000 members of the International Association of Machinists (IA
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      Boeing Needs Additional Cashflow
    • JacksNifflerJacksNiffler
      ·10-15

      Might be the time for a little TSLA

      $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Robotaxi Day was kind of a flop, Cybercab lacked details, Optimus the robot was revealed to be dependent on human control, the highly anticipated cheaper model was once again absent, and information on the FSD performance enhancements wasIt's not clear, investors are more disappointed, and it doesn't seem to be Musk's usual style.But it's also clear that a lot of the details are not up to him alone, judging by the current jump.Personally, I think the impact depends on two factors:Landing the technology under cost control.It's really only a matter of time before the progress of the above technical details is realized, and it's entirely possible to rush it out as long as you're willing to throw money at it.However, Musk has alwa
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      Might be the time for a little TSLA
    • JacksNifflerJacksNiffler
      ·09-29

      Details of OpenAI's internal rifts, Sam Altman's controversy

      The WSJ recently published an inside look at OpenAI, analyzing in detail last year's "court battle" drama and why the executive team fell apart.OpenAI is undergoing an unprecedented transformation and upheaval.Founded in 2015, the nonprofit organization, which was originally dedicated to developing artificial intelligence technology that would benefit all of humanity, is now facing the significant challenge of transitioning from a nonprofit to a for-profit company.Behind this change, a wave of departures, internal struggles, and leadership strife form a complex picture of the inner workings of the organization.Right now, Sam Altman has set out to change OpenAI's nonprofit structure, turning it into a true commercial company and raising capital at a valuation of $150 billion.And Sam's own a
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      Details of OpenAI's internal rifts, Sam Altman's controversy
    • JacksNifflerJacksNiffler
      ·09-27

      A mixed Costco mixed FQ4 earnings means more volatility in stock market?

      $Costco (COST)$ reported its Q4 FY2024 results after the 26th after-hours, and the overall performance has been fair, with basically little volatility after-hours.The company's shares are higher and the main trading force has been institutional as well.Earnings PerformanceRevenues of $79.70 billion, up 1.0% year-over-year and slightly below market expectations of $79.96 billion.Same-store sales growth increased 6.9% overall, above market expectations of 6.4%, with same-store growth in North America of 6.3%, above expectations of 6.0%, and same-store +9.3% in overseas territories, above market expectations of 8.6%.Same-store sales growth including fuel was 5.4%, above market expectations of 4.27%, including +5.3% in North America, above market expe
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      A mixed Costco mixed FQ4 earnings means more volatility in stock market?
    • JacksNifflerJacksNiffler
      ·09-26

      Whether AI industry has peaked? Here's how JPM says

      In a recent $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ roadshow report, analyst Joe Moore provided an in-depth discussion on the current state of the AI market, responding to the market's concerns about whether or not the AI industry has peaked.Below is a summary of the key takeaways from the report:State of the AI MarketDespite $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ stock price volatility and $Broadcom(AVGO)$ erratic performance, demand for AI hardware (especially GPUs) remains strong and the market is still in its early stages.While there is a focus on factors such as product cycles and cabinet shipment sizes, the reality is that these factors have not had as significant an impact on the market as exp
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      Whether AI industry has peaked? Here's how JPM says
    • JacksNifflerJacksNiffler
      ·09-26
      $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ is at it again, and while it's not common to directly advise people to buy options, the timing of the appearance is common, with its analysts recommending buying calls ahead of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Q3 earnings report and the Oct. 10 Robotaxi Event.It even mentions specific options:Buy TSLA Oct-24 $255 callsReasons are clearQ3 results will be heavy on growth, with revenues expected to be up 4% sequentially and 6% year-on-year, driven by strength in China;The event on October 10 is expected to showcase its fully autonomous driving technology and business prospects at the event;Tesla may have a cost advantage in scale over other self-driving car competitors, given its volume in the consumer
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    • JacksNifflerJacksNiffler
      ·09-25

      Trade NVDA Volatility before November

      $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ is once again leading tech stocks and taking the broader market to new highs.There are two main factors that have affected NVIDIA sentiment recently:Jen-Hsun Huang's reduction in his holdings.But according to a Barron's blurb, he has already completed his share of the previously announced reduction;Blackwell expectations.According to $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ projections, in Q4 alone, NVIDIA could earn about $10 billion in revenue from Blackwell chips alone.This can be partly understood as incremental revenue with higher margins.In fact, we can see that since the stock split, NVIDIA stock has gone back and forth for two cycles with gradually decreasing volatility.From a technical point of vie
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      Trade NVDA Volatility before November
       
       
       
       

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