To The Moon

Earnings season is gathering pace, pushing the broader stock market to new records. The Dow industrials, fresh off an all-time high on Mon, 15 Jul 2024 continued with another +1.8% on Tue, 16 Jul 2024. (see above) And its Dow’s best day in more than a year. The move was helped by a surge in $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ after the health insurer reported results where revenue has risen by +6.0% YoY and earnings per share (non GAAP) has risen by +10% YoY. (see above) Both banks - $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ & $Bank of America(BAC)$ also reported big gains in Investment Banking divisions, fueled by the return of dealmaking. (see above) Equally good news and a twist of fate, focus has returned to Russell 2000 Index too. According to Dow Jones Market Data, Russell 2000 has outperformed the Nasdaq Composite over the last five trading days, not seen since 2000. (see above) Separately, US economic retail sales report for June 2024 came in better than forecast. (see above) The 0.00% data showed retail sales holding steady in June, defying forecasts for a contraction of -0.30%. Still it is coming in cooler than May’s data of +0.30%. This should be another step in the “right” direction for the Fed to make its first interest cut in September 2024; 2 years & 4 months after its first interest hike on 17 Mar 2022. Politics pressure on Market. From mid week to Friday, I think the US market will be going thru its own turmoil; unrelated to quarterly earnings. This is because raised geopolitical tensions is seen exerting its “forewarn” effect on heavyweight technology stocks. (see below) Some in the media has attempted to downplay the news as a party campaign rhetoric and nothing more. From outside looking in, it looks like the returning-President is going to select a partner with the same bullying mindset, lacking in decorum, if you asked me. When there is verbal diarrhea, it will bound to create unnecessary frictions. Technology Hostage. After a whirlwind euphoria, tech stocks should be consoldating until Friday due to the strong words delivered by Trump & Vance. In a late Tuesday interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, returning ex-President: Raised geopolitical tensions by stating that Taiwan should pay the US for supplying defense equipment as it does not give the country anything. This caused $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , Taiwan’s biggest stock and the largest contract chipmaker in the world, to fall heavily. Dutch lithography equipment maker $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ also slumped in European trading despite a strong second quarter earnings. This is because around 50% of its sales is from China, highlighting a hefty downside in the event of tighter restrictions. There is already so much ruckus and it is not even the Presidential election. If it should come to past that Mr Trump triumphs, Year 2025 will become a difficult year for the World and US will become the most “hated” country once again. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Give a like & help to repost ok. Thanks. Goldman's H2 2024 Outlook, where to Invest ? Will Microsoft stops falling? And Where ? JPM, C, WFC: Q2 Profits Hide Underlying Risks ! Do you think US market will slump by Friday, 19 July 2024 ? Do you think now is not the time to load up on Tech stocks due to business uncertainty caused by these polarizing politicians who are frankly ill-qualified to run a debt-ridden country like the US? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents