Summary - 07/24/2024$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  

Upside:

1/ EV adoption +20%-25% per yr

2/ EPS est trend likely to bottom 4Q

3/ Fed starts cutting int rates in 2024

4/ Higher FSD take rates/licensing deal

5/ $25K-$30K Compact launch FY’25

6/ Energy profits could 10x by 2030

7/ Likely first to market with unsupervised generalized robotaxi FY’25

8/ Optimus production begins FY’26

Downside:

1/ Judge McCormick may not ratify comp plan; DE Supreme Court timing uncertain

2/ Auto gross margins ex-reg credits may not have bottomed

3/ TSLA at highest P/E in two years

4/ Regulatory risk on FSD/Autonomy

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  • Regulatory risks on FSD/Autonomy are a concern. [Concerned] [What]
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  • Great analysis
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