CRWD : Post-Disaster - Bust or Boom ?
Recap.
On 19 Jul 2024, $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ has a massive outage that brought many industries and organizations, including banks, airlines, train operators, and supermarkets, around the world to a standstill.
As a result, its stock price suffered a major dip, and analysts’ new price targets reflected the magnitude of the recent event.
Stock Re-Forecast
Some market experts have reduced their price targets on CRWD shares or downgraded their rating.
(1) Piper Sandler, Managing Director & Senior research analyst, Rob Owens who:
Changed his price target to $310, from $400 (a 22.50% downgrade).
Maintained the ‘neutral’ score.
(2) BTIG, Managing Director and Security & infrastructure software analyst, Gray Powell :
Downgraded CRWD to “neutral” from ‘buy’.
Did not provide a revised target price.
(3) Guggenheim software, Equity research analyst, John Difucci:
Downgraded the security company to “neutral” rating, as well.
Did not offer a “new” target price.
He also added that the global disruptions might negatively impact its business for a while, even though CrowdStrike makes more products and sells them in new places now.
Final Verdict.
Regardless of the recent updates, the analyst consensus is still that CRWD stock is a ‘Buy’. (see above)
Its various price targets will be: (see above)
$383.57 - average 12-month price target, representing an increase of +25.4% from 19 Jul 2024’s stock price.
$240 - lowest target price, representing a decrease of -21.54%.
$440 - highest target price, representing a gain of +43.85%.
Price consensuses were gathered from analysts between March 2024 and July 2024.
For the first 4 months, it was a unanimous “Buy” rating.
After the outage disaster, majority consensus is “Hold”, with “Buy” a close second.
Stock Price Analysis
Looking at CrowdStrike stock price from 15 Jul 2024 until 24 Jul 2024..
On 15 Jul 2024, its closing stock price was $377.37.
On 24 Jul 2024, its closing stock price was $254.15.
Over 8 calendars (including Saturday & Sunday), stock price has fallen by -32.65%.
As of 24 Jul 2024, its moving average (ma):
For 200-day, it’s supposed to be $291.14.
For 50-day, it’s supposed to be $353.63.
With stock price trending below its 200-day and 50-ma, it is a “bearish” indicaton of a potential downward trend, in the immediate to near term.
Over a longer term, CrowdStrike remains a gold standard for endpoint security. The incident likely won’t have a significant long-term impact on the company; not unless there is an alternative, a competing company that earns the “trust” of major companies, worldwide.
For now:
Based on Barchart’s basic analysis:
Pivot point 1st Resistance level (high) - $261.22.
Pivot point 2nd Resistance level (high) - $268.29.
Pivot point 1st Support Point (Low) - $248.65.
Pivot point 2nd Support Point (Low) - $243.15.
Always remember to conduct thorough research just before investing in CRWD, due to market evolution and a long recovery path ahead !
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Do you think CrowdStrike will continue to consolidate this week, based off its moving averages?
Do you think there will be an alternative to CrowdStrike when it comes to cyber-security that $Microsoft(MSFT)$ will seriously consider partnering?
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Since CrowdStrike has already admitted responsibility, they could be on the hook for $billions. Other than to day trade, those driving it up, I wouldn’t touch it.
I think CRWD will not recover MSFT will walk away and more clients.. not sustainable
Crowdstrike is vulnerable right now. The fallout hasn’t begun yet.
A reversal up toward the 200-day moving average near 291 seems quite possible.
Not looking good. hopefully it bounce back a little
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