High chance (2 of 3 scenarios) is a bounce but...............
Scenario 1 - Outright further collapse to Fib 61.8
Scenario 2 - A bounce to fill the gap and any rejection there (look for head and shoulder liquidity grabs) to drop it to Fib 61.8
Scenario 3 - Bounced higher to the last key liquidity levels (around 549 for SPY) before further down to Fib 61.8 again
Bigger Head and shoulder play out goes to about 519 (between Fib 61.8 and 78.6)
Bearish times ahead until bulls start to show themselves. Any counter rallies will be met by sell demand for now.
Personally, trimming positions.
SPY Daily and Hourly Chart - 4 Aug 2024
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