To The Moon

On August 23, $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ announced that it will voluntarily change its secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) to a primary listing on August 28, 2024. Then, Alibaba will be dual-listed as a primary company on both HKEX and NYSE.

The stock marker "S" will be removed from its stock short names for both HKD and RMB counters on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the Effective Date.This voluntary switch to dual primary listing does not involve issuing new shares or raising new capital.

On August 22, Alibaba’s shareholders approved the proposal for the primary listing in Hong Kong. Once Alibaba completes this transition and is included in the Stock Connect program, mainland Chinese investors will be able to invest directly in Alibaba’s shares.

Since Stock Connect is a major channel linking mainland China with Hong Kong's capital markets, this move is expected to bring substantial inflows from the mainland market.

With mainland investors able to buy and sell Alibaba shares directly, liquidity in the Hong Kong market is expected to rise significantly. Increased liquidity generally means higher market attention and better stock performance, which is crucial for Alibaba's long-term shareholder value.

Higher liquidity typically leads to a liquidity premium, meaning investors are willing to pay more for assets that are easier to trade. Therefore, the increased liquidity from Stock Connect might boost Alibaba's valuation.

Savvy investors might consider taking advantage of this opportunity by using a Bull Call Spread Strategy to go long on Alibaba.

1.Bull Call Spread Strategy

While a rising stock price is always ideal, in reality, prices often rise in fits and starts. For such gradual increases, the Bull Call Spread strategy is a fitting option.

The Bull Call Spread is an options strategy where investors buy a call option with a lower strike price, while simultaneously selling a call option with a higher strike price. This strategy is an evolved version of simply buying call options.

By selling the higher strike call, investors receive extra premium income, which reduces the net cost of the strategy. This adjustment lowers the breakeven point and increases the probability of profit. Essentially, it’s a low-cost way to bet on a rising stock price.

The Bull Call Spread is used when an asset is expected to rise moderately. Both potential gains and losses are capped, making it suitable for situations where moderate price increases are anticipated rather than sharp surges. This strategy allows investors to achieve reasonable returns while keeping both losses and gains within defined limits.

2.Example: Bull Call Spread on BABA

Current stock price of Alibaba is $82.96 per share. If an investor believes Alibaba’s price will rise above $90 by the September expiration but not exceed $100, they can use a Bull Call Spread strategy.

Step 1: Buy a call option with a strike price of $90 expiring on September 27, paying a premium of $110.

Step 2: Sell a call option with a strike price of $100, receiving a premium of $24.

The total cost of the Bull Call Spread strategy is $86 ($110 - $24). This strategy effectively limits the potential gains above the $100 strike price while reducing the overall cost of holding the call option.

3.Strategy Returns

The strategy’s payoff depends on Alibaba’s stock price at expiration. The profit and loss scenario is as follows:

- If Alibaba’s price is below $90, the options expire worthless, and the loss is limited to the total premium paid: $86.

- If Alibaba’s price is between $90 and $100, the strategy will yield a profit. For example, if the price is $95, the profit is the difference between the $90 and $95 strike prices, minus the net cost of $86.

- If Alibaba’s price exceeds $100, the maximum profit is capped at $10 (the difference between the strike prices) minus the total cost of $86, leading to a maximum profit of $10 - $86 = -$76.

4.Advantages of Bull Call Spread

1. This strategy limits downside risk while retaining some potential for profit if the underlying asset's price rises.

2. Compared to a single call option purchase, this strategy involves a lower cost.

3. By buying and selling call options simultaneously, the strategy is less affected by volatility and time decay.

However, the Bull Call Spread also has some drawbacks. If the underlying asset’s price rises significantly above the strike price of the sold call option, you will forfeit the opportunity for additional gains.