To The Moon

Hi everyone. Today I’ll be updating my TA on a really exciting stock:

Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL)

CCL has been trading in a bullish megaphone pattern with higher highs and lower lows… since 1997! It broke out of the 2017 resistance trendline (in red) in Jun’23, and has since traded in a series of higher highs and higher lows in the short-term.

The weekly chart shows us the short-term bullish pattern that is taking place. Notice the ascending channel (in green) that has been playing out, as well as the ascending triangle coiling pattern with equal highs at 19.46 and higher lows. The Stochastic oscillator completed a bullish crossover with this week’s close, signalling a move higher in the coming weeks.

Minimally, I’m expecting CCL to fill the 18.16-18.18 bearish gap and come back into the 19.46 equal high, before meeting the middle trendline of the ascending channel.

A breakout of the ascending triangle will most likely see a move all the way to the top of the channel, which I’m estimating to be between 23.86 and 25.29. But once again, the breakout above 19.46 is key for any future upside.

Alternatively, CCL could retest 19.46 and reject that level one more time which would give investors the opportunity to buy the dip during the seasonally bearish window from Sept-Oct.

In the event that CCL breaks down from its ascending triangle pattern, then the target is quite clear. Look towards the 12.83-13.33 bullish island gap as a major support level, followed by the 10.87 swing lows.

However, given the bullish megaphone pattern that has been in place since 1997, the likelihood of these moves being short-term volatility in a long-term bullish pattern is high. All I’ll say is that FOMO only really begins after CCL breaks over 31.46 - there is an incredible 10-point range to the upside should we get to that level in the future.

In light of the bullish patterns I’m seeing, as well as the declining volume within the ascending triangle (on the monthly timeframe) which suggests consolidation is taking place, I maintain the BUY sentiment that I held from my February newsletter.

Disclosure: I have a position in CCL from 15.20s as of August 2024 and I am looking to add more on any dips.

Sentiment: BUY (Unchanged)

Summary (with Price Targets - NFA):

• Long-term bullish megaphone and short-term ascending triangle bullish pattern, with a weekly Stochastic bullish crossover

• Measured move towards equal highs at 19.46 and a long-term target of prior resistance between 23.86-25.29

• Seasonal weakness in Sept-Oct could give investors more time to buy the dip, should CCL retest the support trendline once more

• Breakdown of support trendline will see a retest of 12.83-13.33 bullish island gap, and a move lower will see 10.87

$Carnival(CCL)$ $Norwegian Cruise Line(NCLH)$ $Royal Caribbean Cruises(RCL)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$

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