To The Moon

Why Did Nvidia Fall 6.9% in After-Hours Trading?

• 3Q2025 Revenue: Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ is expected to report $32.5 billion in revenue, surpassing sell-side expectations of $30-32 billion. However, it fell short of buy-side revenue expectations, which were in the range of $33-35 billion.

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  3Q2025 Non-GAAP Gross Margin: The expected gross margin is 75.0%, slightly below the anticipated 75.4%. Additionally, the gross margin has decreased from 78.9% in 1Q2025 to 75.7% in 2Q2025.

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  2Q2025 Revenue Beat: The revenue beat in 2Q2025 marks the smallest beat in the last five quarters, with a 4.67% beat compared to 6%, 7%, 12%, and 20% beats in 1Q2025, 4Q2024, 3Q2024, and 2Q2024, respectively.

Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers, 29 Aug 2024

Nvidia's Earnings Exceeded Wall Street Expectations in Earnings and Guidance:

• 2Q2025 Revenue: +122% YoY, $30.04 billion vs. $28.7 billion expected

• 2Q2025 Earnings per Share: $0.68 adjusted vs. $0.64 expected

• 3Q2025 Revenue: Expected to be $32.5 billion, plus or minus 2%, beating the expected $31.7 billion

 Other Important Notes:

• The company announced an additional $50 billion share buyback plan.

• Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal year '26. Nvidia expects to generate several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue in Q4.

• Nvidia’s Data Center revenue increased by 16% QoQ, compared to AMD’s $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 21% QoQ growth, which may suggest that AMD is capturing some of the AI chip market share from Nvidia this quarter.

 Conclusion:

• The product transition and Blackwell re-tape-out (RTO) are likely to affect Nvidia’s short-term profitability.

• Nvidia is often priced for perfection, so even the slightest miss can cause investor panic.

• I remain long-term constructive on Nvidia and view short-term dips as accumulation opportunities.