September's irrational self-fulfilling cycle:
Basically with growth that we have seen TTM for semiconductor giants, they have been delivering better results than last year but the speculations on declined growth tend to focus too much on quarterly result.
If we look at the following table, NVDA's latest quarter earning might not be a big winner but TTM growth is at 193% vs 125% last year, the stock price growth in 2023 was 239%. The recent irrational selling questioning the valuation is caused by short sellers and fear mongers spreading fake news. NVDA's P/E in 2024 is at 89 compared to 284 in 2023.
Next for AMAT, in 2023 we saw a return of 67.98%. But for this year, it has improved in EPS TTM and gross margin. We are currently only seeing a limited return at 11.8%.
The worst is for AMD which is currently YTD at -5.4% when their TTM Revenue growth is better than last year. We saw their stock return in 2023 at 127.5%.
When we look at RSI, majority of them have reached 20-30+ range.
If we look at the improved performance this year and the relative price they are currently at, then we can see that the market is focused too much on the short-term and almost wipe out all the past months growth. Even if so, the revenue and earnings growth aren't going away.
September isn't a cursed month. It is a month full of speculations to make uninformed traders transfer their money to informed traders. [Cry] [Cry] If this continues, could we see more potential buybacks given that the shareholders are throwing away stocks while these companies are still in a good financial position? With interest rates lowered, there is a higher likelihood
Modify on 2024-09-06 16:15
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