August CPI Inflation Expectations:
1. Kalshi: 2.5%
2. TD Securities: 2.5%
3. UBS: 2.5%
4. Citigroup: 2.5%
5. Barclays: 2.5%
6. JP Morgan: 2.5%
7. Goldman Sachs: 2.6%
8. Wells Fargo: 2.6%
9. Deutsche Bank: 2.6%
10. Morgan Stanley: 2.6%
11. Bank of America: 2.6%
The median August CPI expectation shows headline inflation at 2.6% and Core CPI inflation at 3.2%.
If CPI inflation comes in at 2.6% or lower, it will mark the lowest annual inflation rate since at least March 2021.
Tomorrow's CPI report should solidify a September rate cut.
If inflation is 2.5% or lower, it will mark the lowest inflation rate since February 2021.
A lower than expected reading could increase odds of a 50 bps cut.
Higher than expected inflation supports 25 bps
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